UFC 169 is in the books and to be honest it was a relatively weak night of fights. There were only 2 stoppages of the 12 fights on the card, the 10 decisions was actually a UFC event record. For The Fight Predictor though, it was an incredible night. We made a huge profit of 19.38 units and went a perfect 5-0 on our bets! If you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is packed with ridiculous amounts of MMA stats and is just $10 or so if you buy the Kindle version on Amazon.
Our final bet of the night was 2 units on the final 3 favourites on the card. We bet 2 units at 2.15 to 1. Overeem was dominant over Mir. He smartly left something in the gas tank even though he had a chance to finish in the first round. As expected, Jose Aldo was able to control Ricardo Lamas for 4 of the 5 rounds, even landing a couple takedowns in the fourth. In the fifth, Lamas managed to get on top of Aldo and was going for the finish as with ground and pound as the final bell sounded. It was up to Renan Barao to seal our last bet of the night by defeating Urijah Faber for a second time. Barao made no mistake, rocking Faber several times in the first round before getting a (questionable) TKO victory with hammer fists. We profit 2.30 units.
To kick off the main card was our bet on Abel Trujillo. We had a 3 unit bet on Trujillo to defeat Varner at 2.56 to 1. Like the Catone bet, we beat the odds movement as at fight time, Trujillo was down to 2.10 to 1. The first round saw some crazy swinging between the two and Varner almost locking up a North South choke. In one of the craziest exchanges of all time, it looked like Varner was getting the upper hand when suddenly out of nowhere, Trujillo landed an incredible right hand that put Varner to sleep. We profit 4.68 units.
Our next play was on the co-main event of the prelims. We had a 3 unit bet on Chris Cariaso to defeat Danny Martinez at 1.67 to 1. The line fell a bit by fight time, but we felt the #9 ranked UFC flyweight held huge value taking on the newcomer Martinez. The first round saw pretty even striking, with Martinez getting the late takedown and holding Cariaso against the fence for a while. The second round saw Cariaso outstriking Martinez, but getting pushed up against the fence for a lot of the second half. Martinez also took Cariaso down a couple times, but did no damage. Cariaso took over the third round, landing much more effective strikes on the feet. The judges scored it 29-28×3 for Cariaso which made us 3-0 on our bets and added a profit of 2.01 units.
Our next bet was Nick Catone to defeat Tom Watson in the middleweight division. We placed a 3 unit bet at 2.65 to 1, but by fight time Catone was all the way down to 2.15 to 1. The first round was relatively even on the feeet, but we gave it to Catone as he landed a late takedown and held Watson down for the last minute or so. Round 2 was more of the same with close to equal effectiveness on the feet, but Catone finishing the round on top. In round 3, it was all Watson on the feet, but Catone got a takedown with about a minute left. We scored the fight 29-28 for Catone and the judges saw the same winner. We profit 4.95 units.
The second leg f our first parlay was Al Iaquinta to defeat Kevin Lee. Round 1 saw Iaquinta knock down and almost finish Lee as well as locking up a deep heel hook which he was close to finishing. The second round was all Lee as he locked in a body triangle early and kept Iaquinta locked up for almost the entire round. The third was pretty even, but in our opinion Iaquinta got the better of Lee on the feet. It was a scary decision, but the judges got it right in awarding it to Iaquinta. We profit 2.44 units.
The first leg of our first parlay was Clint Hester to defeat Andy Enz in the middleweight division. Hester got a knockdown in round 1 and expended a lot of energy trying to finish. He was either tired or conserving his energy for the rest of the fight, but he was able to do enough to take the decision. The only close round in the fight was the third as Enz tried to pour it on to get the finish knowing he’d lost the first two. We just needed an Iaquinta victory to close out the parlay.
We tweeted out a 2 unit bet on Rashid Magomedov to defeat Tony Martin just before the fight began. We placed this bet because Magomedov had climbed up to 1.71 to 1 which we felt had crazy value. The first round saw Martin on top for the majority and also saw him almost lock up an arm bar, but Magomedov was unwilling to fight. From then on, in a slow paced fight, Magomedov landed basically all of the damaging strikes and took the win in a clear 29-28 decision. We profit 1.42 units, but again this won’t be in our total as most people wouldn’t have been able to tail.
Barao, Aldo, Overeem parlay. 2 units at 2.15 to 1 (+2.30 units)
Trujillo over Varner. 3 units at 2.56 to 1 (+4.68 units)
Catone over Watson. 3 units at 2.65 to 1 (+4.95 units)
Cariaso over Martinez. 3 units at 1.67 to 1 (+2.01 units)
Hester and Iaquinta parlay. 2 units at 2.22 to 1 (+2.44 units)
Betting Record: 5-0
Event Profit: 16.38
Main Card Results
Barao over Faber to retain the bantamweight title via first round TKO
Aldo over Lamas to retain the featherweight title via unanimous decision
Overeem over Mir via unanimous decision
Bagautinov over Lineker via unanimous decision
Trujillo over Varner via second round TKO
Preliminary Card Results
Patrick over Makdessi via unanimous decision
Cariaso over Martinez via unanimous decision
Catone over Watson via split decision
Iaquinta over Lee via split decision
Hester over Enz via unanimous decision
Magomedov over Martin via unanimous decision
Magny over Umalatov via unanimous decision