UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi Full Predictions and Bets

UFC Fight Night 36 is just 48 hours away and we have you covered with predictions and bets for the top heavy UFC Fight Night card. The card will be live from the Arena Jaragua in Jaragua do Sul, Brazil. To catch the prelims, you need a UFC Fight Pass account. The prelims will be live at 7:30 pm ET with the main card on Fox Sports 1 beginning at 10:30 pm ET. We already brought you our main card predictions and bets so this article will be focused on the prelims. If you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is packed with ridiculous amounts of MMA stats and is just $10 or so if you buy the Kindle version on Amazon.

We incorrectly said in the previous article that we gave you all our model picks already. There are actually two remaining model picks. The first is Charles Oliveira to defeat Andy Ogle. At 1.17 to 1, the price is pretty steep, but as a parlay member, we think Oliveira makes a good pick. Oliveira has lost two straight, but those losses came to a couple of the division’s best in Cub Swanson and Frankie Edgar. His wins over Jonathan Brookins, Eric Wisely and Nik Lentz (he won the night of the fight so it counts), show that he is more than just a bottom rung featherweight. Ogle’s only UFC win came over Josh Grispi, a guy who is 0-4 in UFC competition. The odds of him being able to pull the victory off on Saturday are slim to none. Our model agrees, having Oliveira winning 80% of the time. At 1.17 to 1 he would have to win 85% of the time and we aren’t comfortable putting him in a parlay at that price, but we wouldn’t necessarily fault someone who wanted to.

In our final model pick of the night, we have Felipe Arantes to defeat Maximo Blanco. The problem with this fight however, is Blanco is incredibly inconsistent. He’s just 1-3 in his UFC career with his only win coming over Sam Sicilia who is a lowly 2-3 in the UFC. Blanco did look to be on his way to a win over Akira Corassani at the end of November before landing an early illegal knee which led to a DQ loss. Arantes is no world beater himself with a record of 2-2-1 in the UFC so far. Our model has Arantes as the favourite to win, but laying money on this fight just seems like a waste of money with both guys pretty tough to judge. Where we do like the line though, is the over 2.5 rounds. Firstly, as featherweights, the likelihood of a one punch KO is reduced. Secondly, their UFC performances so far have shown a propensity to going to the score cards with 50% of Blanco’s fight going to the judges and 80% of Arantes’. The real danger comes from a possible submission with each guy losing two fights via submission, but we feel like the probability of that outcome is marginal enough that a bet is warranted. We placed a 2 unit bet on this fight going over 2.5 rounds at 1.66 to 1.

As we stated in our initial article, we felt there was some value in Viscardi Andrade to defeat Nicholas Musoke. Since that article, Andrade has climbed up to 1.82 to 1. At that level, we feel there is significant value in Andrade so we placed 3 unit bet on Andrade at 1.82 to 1.

We’re a little light on the bets for this card, but better to be that way than placing lot’s of bets with the potential to lose. We’d prefer to save our money for places where we feel a good return is likely. One lean we have is Douglas D’Silva De Andrade to defeat Zubair Tuhugov, but we’re expecting a slug fest in that one. With two new UFC fighters sitting at close to even, it’s probably not the best place to lay our money. It is a line we’ll watch closely and if De Andrade happens to climb to 2.30 or 2.50 to 1, we’ll definitely lay down a bet. Next up, just 9 days away now is UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann and we’ll have our full picks and bets out for that card shortly after the full odds are out! Don’t forget to pick up your copy of Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics and to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Bets

Machida over Mousasi inside the distance. 1.5 units at 2.90 to 1
Silva/Souza/Machida. 2 units at 1.91 to 1
Andrade over Musoke. 3 units at 1.82 to 1
Over 2.5 rounds Arantes vs Blanco. 2 units at 1.66 to 1

One thought on “UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi Full Predictions and Bets

  1. I bet tumenov on Sunday at -150. 6000 to win 4000

    Tumenov, jacare, proctor
    500 to win 1500

    Tumenov, jacare, mousashi
    500 to win 3000

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