UFC Fight Night 36: Machida vs Mousasi went down tonight from Jaragua, Brazil. Unfortunately for us, we had a small loss on the night. Overall, we went 2-2 on our bets for a total loss of 1.36 units. When combined with our results over the last 5 events though, we’re still up over 30 units overall and we’ve won 18 of our 27 bets. We’ll readjust and come back strong for UFC 170. Hopefully our full picks will be up early next week assuming the full betting lines are relased.
Our final bet of the night was Lyoto Machida to defeat Gegard Mousasi inside the distance. The bet was 1.5 units at 2.90 to 1. The first round was a typical Machida round as he sat back and feinted for the most part, but landed strikes whenever he chose and took very little damage. The second round saw Mousasi charging in and landing some combos, but Machida also landed a nice head kick and multiple damaging strikes. Machida controlled the third round similar to the first, landing a bunch of damaging strikes while Mousasi landed very little. The fourth round saw Machida get a takedown and remain on top for much of the round. Mousasi did hit a switch at one point, but it still looked to be a round that went to Machida. The fifth round saw Machida get the better of the striking as well as landing a trip which allowed him to transition to back control and remain there for the final few minutes. Unfortunately, the dominant performance by Machida still had us losing our 1.5 unit ITD bet.
Our lone parlay of the night was Silva, Souza and Machida to win. The bet was 2 units at 1.91 to 1. The first leg was easy (as expected) with Silva disposing of Sato in the first minute of round 1. Leg 2 of the parlay was Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza to defeat Francis Carmont. Round 1 was all Souza as he was able to lock up a body triangle and hold Carmont there for the majority of the round. We also gave round 2 to Souza, but it was much closer than round 1 with most of the round on the feet. Round 3 was similar to round 1 with Souza spending much of the round glued to Carmont’s back. Jacare took the fight 29-28×2, 30-27. Machida’s win completed this parlay on which we profit 1.82 units.
Our second bet of the night was Viscardi Andrade to defeat Nicholas Musoke. The bet was 3 units on Andrade at 1.82 to 1. At first, the bet looked great, Andrade scored a knock down early in the first and celebrated prematurely. Unfortunately, most of the rest of the fight saw Musoke on top and in control. The judges got it right as they all scored the fight 29-28 for Musoke. We lose 3 units.
Our first bet of the night was on Maximo Blanco and Felipe Arantes to fight for longer than 12:30 (2.5 rounds). The bet was 2 units at 1.66 to 1. It was a scary fight to have bet the over in. The first round saw some crazy back and forth striking action including Arantes dropping Blanco close to the end of the round and almost getting a finish. Round 2 saw far fewer strikes and no really dangerous situations. It was obvious both guys were beginning to tire, but Blanco likely took the round as he spent a decent amount of time in top position and held his own in the stand up. The pace of the fight stayed constant for the third, at least until Blanco landed a heavy groin kick which was worrying because Arantes stayed down for a long time. Following the restart, Blanco started fighting like crazy for the finish, but the clock still chugged past 2:30 and our bet paid. Arantes took the victory with all judges scoring it 29-27 and we profit 1.32 units on our 2 unit bet.
Silva, Souza, Machida parlay. 2 units at 1.91 to 1 (+1.82 units)
Over 2.5 rounds – Blanco vs Arantes. 2 units at 1.66 to 1 (+1.32 units)
Machida inside the distance. 1.5 units (-1.50 units)
Andrade over Musoke. 3 units (-3.00 units)
Event Record: 2-2
Event Loss: 1.36 units
Main Card Results
Machida over Mousasi via unanimous decision
Souza over Carmont via unanimous decision
Silva over Sato via first round KO
Musoke over Andrade via unanimous decision
Oliveira over Ogle via third round submission (triangle choke)
Preliminary Card Results
Proctor over Marcello via unanimous decision
Damm over Jorge via unanimous decision
Trinaldo over Ronson via split decision
Alcantara over Reis via split decision
Arantes over Blanco via unanimous decision
Alcantara over Tumenov via split decision
Tukhugov over De Andrade via unanimous decision