There are three MMA events this weekend with published odds and we’re here to bring you our picks for the two cards that go down Friday night. First up is Titan FC 27: Ricci vs Gurgel. In a surprisingly good card for the promotion, we are able to predict the co-main and main event using our mathematical model and we chose to place one bet for the event. The second Friday night event is the return of Bellator with Bellator 110: Jackson vs M’Pumbu. We won’t be providing any model picks for that event, but we will give our take on the main card bouts and any value that we see. If you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is packed with ridiculous amounts of MMA stats and is just $10 or so if you buy the Kindle version on Amazon.
Titan FC 27: Ricci vs Gurgel
The main event of Titan FC 27 features recent UFC castoff Mike Ricci and former UFC fighter Jorge Gurgel. Ricci was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter 16 and actually a surprise release by the UFC. He was 1-2, but his latest loss was a close split decision to Myles Jury who is 4-0 in the UFC and making a case for being a top 15 lightweight. Gurgel is clearly the lower level competitor with a career record of 14-9 and his combined UFC/Strikeforce record sitting at 5-8. We see little chance of Gurgel pulling off the upset, especially considering he hasn’t fought in over a year and he is now 37 years old. We’re backing the 27 year old Ricci all the way and even at the current line of about 1.14 to 1, we’re going to add him to a parlay.
The second leg of our Titan FC parlay will be Matt Riddle. Had Riddle not been busted for using marijuana twice, he would have been riding an impressive 4-0 streak in the UFC. As it stands, he was released and had at least a couple fights fall through with various promotions before arriving at this fight with Michael Kuiper. Kuiper was released from the UFC after a first round loss to Brad Scott. The lone bright spot in Kuiper’s UFC career was a second round TKO victory over Jared Hamman. The main concern of ours in picking Riddle is that he hasn’t fought in over a year and he may not be coming into this fight 100% mentally or physically. Still though, he pays over 1.50 to 1 and even at 3/4 capacity should be able to get the job done against Kuiper. We added Riddle to a parlay with Ricci and placed a 2 unit bet at 1.77 to 1.
Bellator 110: Rampage vs M’Pumbu
Jackson over M’Pumbu via decision. No bet at current odds.
Lawal over Zayats via TKO. Both guys have a history of quickly finishing fights. No value in the money line, but we do feel there’s lots of value in the under so we placed a 2 unit bet on under 2.5 rounds at 2.35 to 1.
Nunes over Bessette via decision. Wouldn’t be hugely surprised to see Besette pick up the victory. As a value play, 1 unit bet on Besette at 4.00 to 1.
Richman over Green via TKO. No value in the current line, but may be some value in the over. Richman finishes a lot of fights, but Green goes to a lot of decisions. We won’t bet it, but over 2.5 rounds at even money may hold some value.
That’s it for our Titan FC 27: Ricci vs Gurgel and Bellator 110: Rampage vs M’Pumbu predictions and bets. Stay tuned for our UFC Fight Night 37 (TUF China Finale) full predictions and bets which will likely come tomorrow.
Ricci/Riddle 2 units at 1.77 to 1
Under 2.5 rounds Lawal/Zayats. 2 units at 2.35 to 1
Besette over Nunes. 1 unit at 4.00 to 1