We’re now just 2 days away from UFC Fight Night 37: Gustafsson vs Manuwa. If you didn’t get a chance to see it, our early predictions and bets were posted earlier this week and we’re here to bring you the remaining bets for this relatively decent Fight Pass fight card. Our model plays were both given out with our early picks, but we still have a couple parlay bets we think pay off well enough to justify laying down some money. The action begins at 12:30 pm ET this Saturday, March 8 from the O2 Arena in London, England. We will be looking to build on our huge profit over the last 9 events which is detailed in our track record. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
Firstly, as we said in our early predictions, we see value in the light heavyweight main event where Alexander Gustafsson takes on Jimi Manuwa. The huge step up in competition and the skill level of Gustafsson will overwhelm Manuwa. We would parlay Brad Pickett to defeat the debuting Neil Seery with Gustafsson, but the issue is he has dropped to 1.13 and the value just isn’t there. Instead we will add 2 other favourites to this parlay. Firstly, we added the undefeated Gunnar Nelson to defeat Omari Akhmedov. Akhmedov looked terrible in his UFC debut where he fought Thiago Perpetuo. Akhmedov was absolutely dominated for about the first 3 minutes of the fight. Unfortunately for Perpetuo though, the next 30 seconds were awful for him as Akhmedov knocked him out. Nelson should be able to take advantage with his more technical striking and we see him either controlling the action on the feet or utilizing his grappling to win a decision. The other leg we added to this parlay was the gigantic Luke Barnatt to defeat Mats Nilsson. Barnatt looked incredible in winning via submission over Andrew Craig. With the way he was using his reach in that fight, there aren’t many middleweights who will be able to take him out. Fighting Barnatt will be a huge step up for the debuting Nilsson and we have little reason to believe he’ll be able to get the job done. Our bet is Gustafsson, Nelson and Barnatt in a parlay for 3 units at 2.18.
Our second parlay for the event features Brad Scott and Igor Araujo to win their fights. Scott takes on the debuting Cláudio Henrique da Silva who is another Brazilian guy (this seems pretty common) with a solid record of 9-1 with no notable opponents defeated. Not only is da Silva debuting and facing an opponent much better than any he has ever faced, but he hasn’t fought since October 26, 2012 which is a scary amount of time away from the cage for a non-UFC fighter and it makes you question his motivation to fight. In addition, da Silva is 31 years old while Scott is just 24 so in addition to the other factors mentioned, Scott has a decent age advantage as well. At over 1.50, the value on that fight clearly lies on Scott. Igor Araujo will be fighting for the second time in the UFC after debuting with a win over Ildemar Alcantara. His overall record currently sits at 24-6 and he is riding a 5 fight win streak. His opponent Danny Mitchell enters the fight on a 2 fight win streak and with a 14-4 overall record. The caliber of opponent fought by Mitchell is just atrocious. In his fight to get him to 13-4 he fought Victor Peixeito, a fighter whose record sits at 0-7. He lost to the 19-13 former UFC fighter Kendall Grove back in June, 2013. Araujo’s opponents haven’t been that much better, but his only loss in the last 5 years comes to another relative newcomer to the UFC, the 16-1 Rashid Magomedov. Araujo should easily handle Mitchell in this fight which is why we added him to our parlay. The bet is 3 units on Scott and Araujo at 2.47.
One over/under bet we like is Davey Grant and Roland Delorme to fight for less than 2.5 rounds. The bet currently pays 2.45 and is well worth it in our opinion as Grant has never had a fight go over 2:30 into the third round which is the threshold for getting paid on this one. The main threat to this bet is Delorme grappling Grant to a decision, but we think the possibility of this fight going under 2.5 rounds is at worst 50% and at the current line that means there is significant value in placing a bet. We bet 1.5 units at 2.45 on Grant/Delorme to be under 2.5 rounds.
Next up for us is UFC 171: Lawler vs Hendricks which features a couple huge welterweight fights including Robbie Lawler vs Johny Hendricks for the vacant title and Tyron Woodley vs Carlos Condit which will likely determine the first number one contender to whoever wins the title fight. Our early predictions and bets were posted recently so stay tuned for at least one and maybe two more posts featuring the best bets for the event! By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
Gustafsson/Nelson/Barnatt Parlay. 3 units at 2.18
Johnson over Guillard. 3 units at 1.87
Scott/Araujo Parlay. 3 units at 2.47
Under 1.5 Rounds Grant/Delorme. 1.5 units at 2.45
Harris over Gaudinot. 3 units at 2.65