UFC Fight Night 39: Nogueira vs Nelson Results and Betting Recap

Our final bet of the night was on Antonio Nogueira to defeat Roy Nelson in the main event. The bet was 3 units at 2.55. At times during the week, the odds were as low at 2.15, but they climbed back up to around 2.50 by fight time. Nelson connected with the right hand several times in the first round and had a clear striking advantage. Unfortunately, Nogueira was wobbly and Nelson capitalized taking the win by KO with a huge right hand. We lose our 3 unit bet.

Our third bet of the night was on John Howard to defeat Ryan LaFlare. This bet was more of a value play as we felt the line had got out of hand. We had 1 unit on Howard at 4.00, but by fight time the line had reached 4.55. Round 1 saw LaFlare get a takedown, holding Howard down for about half the round. When they eventually stood up, LaFlare continued to be the more effective martial artist on the feet. The second round saw Howard land a strike that wobbled LaFlare, allowing him to get a takedown and take the top position. In the middle of the second round, Howard took a direct shot to the groin that saw him take the full 5 minutes to recover. He didn’t seem to be the same fighter for the rest of the fight as he spent almost the entire third round on his back. We lose 1 unit.

Our second bet of the night was on the first heavyweight bout between Daniel Omielanczuk and Jared Rosholt to be under 1.5 rounds. The bet was 2 units at 2.75. As many people anticipated and as we were hoping wouldn’t happen, Rosholt basically laid on top of Omielanczuk for a round and a half meaning our bet was lost. We lost 2 units.

Since our bet on Yahya got cancelled, we were left with just Thales Leites over Trevor Smith, 3 units at 1.25. This wasn’t necesarily a line we’d take by choice, but it wasn’t a bet we were uncomfortable holding either as we expected Leites to cruise to victory. Leites made good on our prediction as he surprisingly chose to keep the fight standing and was able to finish Trevor Smith early in the first. We profit 0.75 units.

Opening the card was the first leg of our parlay. We had Rani Yahya to defeat Johnny Bedford. By fight time, Yahya hadn’t dropped too much as the line was still around 1.61. Unfortunately within the first minute, there were 2 accidental head butts. The second clash of heads saw both guys get rocked. Bedford was able to capitalize, landing a couple undefended strikes. The decision was announced as a no contest due to accidental headbutt which means the Yahya leg of our parlay gets cancelled. We were left with 3 units on Thales Leites at 1.25.

Good Bets:

Leites over Smith. 3 units at 1.25 (+0.75 units)

Lost Bets:

Nogueira over Nelson. 3 units at 2.55 to 1 (-3.00 units)
Howard over LaFlare. 1 unit at 4.00 (-1.00 units)
Under 1.5 – Omielanczuk/Rosholt. 2 units at 2.75 to 1 (-2.00 units)

Event Record: 1-3
Event Profit: -5.25 units

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