We’re less than 24 hours away from the TUF Nations Finale which will feature Bisping and Kennedy in the main event as well as the TUF Nations finals which take place in the middleweight and welterweight divisions. The fighters have all weighed in and everyone was on weight so there’s no threat of fights being removed like happened last weekend at UFC Fight Night 39: Nelson vs Nogueira. The fight card has a ton of fights with 13 total and will begin with 4 fights on Fight Pass at 3:15 pm ET. The televised prelims kick off at 5 PM ET and the main card will be live at 7 PM ET on Sportsnet 360 and Fox Sports 1. The event goes down at the former home of the Quebec Nordiques in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. We already released our early predictions and bets where our lone bet was Tim Kennedy to defeat Michael Bisping at 2.67. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
We touched on the co-main event between Kyle Noke and Patrick Cote in our early predictions and bets post, but since then, the line on Cote has climbed considerably. When it reached 1.95, we felt the value was high enough to make a move so we bet 3 units on Cote at 1.95 as Tweeted a few days ago.
In the middleweight final of TUF Nations, the 8-0 Elias Theodorou will be doing battle with the 8-1-1 Sheldon Westcott. In what may or may not be a good indication of who is likely to win, Westcott’s last 5 opponents have a combined record of 77-58 (57%) while Theodorou’s last 5 opponents have a combined record of 34-20 (63%). By itself, these numbers are close enough that they probably don’t mean much. What is concerning though is that Westcott holds a split draw against the 27-21 Thomas Denny. Again, these things don’t mean too much on their own, but combine them with the fact that Theodorou appeared to be the better of the two in his TUF fights, and we see value in Elias at 1.74. We placed a 3 unit bet on Elias Theodorou at 1.74.
In 3 picks that basically everyone has, we have Poirier over Corassani, Jimmo over O’Connell and Gagnon over Gorman. While the lines on all 3 are relatively steep, we feel a parlay will cash the vast majority of the time so we combined the 3 for close to even money. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Poirier, Jimmo and Gagnon at 1.80.
Our final bet of the night is a guy we’ve had big success with before. We bet George Roop to defeat Brian Bowles when he was around 3.50. It turned out to be a very successful bet for us as Roop came through with a huge second round TKO. Roop enters tomorrow nights TUF Nations Finale fight off a loss to Francisco Rivera by TKO. Luckily for Roop’s chin, Kimura is likely not a guy who can earn a TKO over him with just 2 career TKOs, both of which came outside of the UFC. Overall, Kimura has really not looked good in the UFC, getting a submission win over Chico Camus late in a fight that Camus had been dominating and getting his other win via sub over Jon Delos Reyes (who?!?). While we don’t think Roop is going to be a contender at any point in his career, he has shown decent striking and should be able to easily take care of Kimura. In addition, Roop is a heavy favourite in our mathematical model. We placed a 3 unit bet on Roop at 1.83.
That’s it for our betting picks. In unit terms, this will be one of our biggest betting cards ever and we’re hoping it will result in big time profit numbers! Next up, there’s only a few days remaining until UFC on Fox 11: Werdum vs Browne which features a heavyweight number one contender fight in the main event between Travis Browne and Fabricio Werdum as well as a potential number one women’s contender match in the co-main event between Miesha Tate and Liz Carmouche. Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for the latest! A cool book to take a look at if you want to be serious about your sports betting is Changing the Game by William Hall III. It’s just $9 on Kindle and well worth the price with a wealth of strategies for earning money betting on sports.
Kennedy over Bisping. 3 units at 2.67
Cote over Noke. 3 units at 1.95
Theodorou over Westcott. 3 units at 1.74
Poirier/Jimmo/Gagnon Parlay. 3 units at 1.80
Roop over Kimura. 3 units at 1.83