We’re just two days away from Jon Jones defending his UFC light heavyweight title vs Glover Teixeira at UFC 172! We’ll be looking to continue our huge run where we went 9-1 on our 10 bets over the TUF Nations Finale and UFC on Fox 11 which netted a total profit of 24.48 units. In this event, we aren’t predicting any big upsets so most of our bets are parlays. If you had been betting with us since UFC 168, you would now have doubled your bank roll. Our full track record is available here. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
As we said in our early predictions and bets, we think Jones deserves his status as a big favourite. We also mentioned we thought Rockhold was a brutal match-up for Tim Boetsch, but the line was too crazy for a bet. We have decided to throw both those guys into a parlay with Phil Davis, who we also thought was deserving of his status as a favourite. The net result is a 3 unit parlay on Jones/Rockhold/Davis at 2.03. We placed the bet at Sportbet.com and Tweeted it out. There hasn’t been much line movement since then, so you should be able to get close to even money on the parlay.
The second parlay we announced via Twitter was a 3 unit play on Chris Beal and Joseph Benavidez which we placed at 5Dimes. It’s widely believed that Joseph Benavidez will bounce back and forth between winning streaks and losing title shots against Demetrious Johnson for the majority of his prime. We tend to agree with that theory and expect Benavidez to bounce back from his latest loss to Johnson with a big, decisive win. In Elliott’s last fight, a unanimous decision loss to Ali Bagautinov, he was a step behind for the majority of the fight and we expect something similar on Saturday night. The second leg of this parlay, Chris Beal (8-0) to defeat Patrick Williams (7-3) is far from a lock, but as long as Beal doesn’t show significant UFC jitters, the parlay bet should be relatively safe. We think people are overrating Williams’ grappling abilities. We expect Beal will be able to keep the fight on the feet, doing enough damage to take a unanimous decision. Our parlay bet was 3 units at 2.20.
The final bet for this even will be another parlay that we announced on Twitter. This two team bet involves Jim Miller and Danny Castillo. Miller will be taking on Yancy Medeiros. Medeiros has fought twice in the UFC. The first fight was a loss due to a broken thumb against Rustam Khabilov, while the second was a KO win over Yves Edwards that was subsequently overturned due to a failed drug test. There was little to take away from the first bout as the majority saw Medeiros and Khabilov dancing around, planning there attacks, before Medeiros broke his thumb on a takedown by Khabilov. The second saw Medeiros showing suspect defense, attempting to walk through Edwards’ punches and eventually landing a somewhat “lucky” (can we call a perfectly timed punch lucky?) uppercut that dropped Edwards and allowed Medeiros to get the knockout victory. The 16 fight UFC veteran, Miller (12 victories) is unlikely to be defeated by the relatively green Medeiros, especially with only a week or so for both camps to adjust to the recently announced opponent change. The second leg of this parlay is Danny Castillo to defeat Charlie Brenneman. Castillo looked awesome in the first round of his most recent fight against Edson Barboza, clipping Barboza and remaining on top landing ground and pound. Unfortunately, Barboza was able to get his wits about him and do enough for the remaining 2 rounds to defeat Castillo. We expect a similar first round in Castillo vs Brenneman, except we expect Castillo to be able to get the job done against Brenneman who will be fighting for the second time since returning to the UFC after a year and a half absence. His first fight was a first round submission loss to Beneil Dariush. We placed a 3 parlay unit bet on Miller and Castillo at 2.00 at 5Dimes.
After UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira, the UFC will head to Cincinnati, Ohio for UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva on May 10 which will be followed up by a busy end to May with 3 events in 7 days, 2 of which will be on May 31. We’ll have you covered with the best bets from every card. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest! Looking to start a bank roll? We recommend taking advantage of BetOnline‘s first deposit bonus. Not only will that money be yours once you satisfy the rollover requirements, but we’ll be giving you the best bets from every event ensuring you earn a huge profit.
Jones/Rockhold/Davis Parlay. 3 units at 2.03 at Sportbet.com
Under 3.5 rounds Jones vs Teixeira. 2 units at 1.65 at 5Dimes
Under 1.5 rounds Rockhold vs Boetsch. 2 units at 2.30 at 5Dimes
Beal/Benavidez Parlay. 3 units at 2.20 at 5Dimes
Miller/Castillo Parlay. 3 units at 2.00 at 5Dimes