We’re just a few days away from UFC Fight Night 40 and the card looks to be pretty good for betting. We’ll be looking to stretch our winning streak to 5 events with 30 of our total 61.67 units of profit coming over that span. Our detailed history is available on our track record. We already provided you with our early predictions and bets for this decent fight night card from Cincinnati featuring Erik Silva and Matt Brown in the main event. We will now go into detail with our full bets including a couple parlays and another straight bet. The early prelims go down on Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET with the televised prelims at 8pm ET and the main card live at 10pm ET. By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
Our first parlay of the card will be 3 units on Soa Palelei, Eddie Wineland and Nik Lentz at 2.25 (+125) at 5Dimes. Palelei is likely the least confident leg of this parlay as we feel he is generally overrated by the betting public, but in this case he is going against the debuting Ruan Potts who is 8-1 in his MMA career. Potts 8-1 record doesn’t accurately depict his skill level as many of his opponents have been very very weak. We expect Palelei will attempt to keep this fight standing in order to get an early finish. Eddie Wineland’s only losses in the last 5 years have come to top ranked competitors in Renan Barao, Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. Johnny Eduardo is not at the level of any of those guys and, in addition, he enters this fight off a 2 year absence. After watching the film on both, we feel Eduardo stands little chance in this match-up which is why we like Wineland as the second leg in this parlay. The final leg of the parlay is Nik Lentz, who enters his match-up with Manny Gamburyan off a decision loss to Chad Mendes. Gamburyan also enters the fight off a loss, having lost a decision (that was subsequently overturned) to Dennis Siver. Lentz should be able to stuff the takedowns of Gamburyan at least frequently enough to get the nod from the judges which is why he’s the third leg of our first parlay.
Next up, in a bet we Tweeted out yesterday, our math model has Ed Herman defeating Rafael Natal. The odds as of last night were 2.05 (+105), but if you missed our pick last night, you can do even better today at 2.15 (+115). To be honest, neither of these guys have looked particularly good throughout their UFC careers. Natal tends to beat the very bad competition (only 2 of his 5 UFC victories were over guys who are still in the UFC) and lose to the mid to high level competition. We classify Herman as a mid-level UFC competitor. His biggest win was likely a 2011 win over Kyle Noke via first round submission, but his 1-3 record in his last 4 is not necessarily indicative of his skill level as the three losses came to Thales Leites, Ronaldo Souza and Jake Shields (all recently ranked in the UFC’s top 10). We expect Herman to take down Natal and either lay and pray or get a submission victory. The bet is 3 units on Herman at 2.05 (+105) at Sportsbook: Sportsbook.ag.
Our final bet of the night will be another parlay. This time 2 legs consisting of Albert Tumenov and Justin Salas. Salas will be taking on Ben Wall who is making his second UFC appearance after getting smashed by Alex Garcia in 43 seconds in his UFC debut. We don’t expect him to have much more success against Salas in his second UFC contest. His 7-1-1 record looks impressive, but when you dig into the relatively weak level of competition he has faced, it kind of loses its lustre. Whether Salas decides to take the fight to the ground or to remain standing remains to be seen, but regardless of where it takes place, Salas should take a decision win. In the second leg of the parlay, we are banking on Albert Tumenov to come back strong from a split decision loss to Ildemar Alcantara. Our bet is 3 units on Tumenov and Salas at 2.13 (+113) at 5Dimes.
Under 1.5 Rounds – Brown vs Silva. 2 units at 1.95 (-105) at BetOnline
Magny over Means. 2 units at 3.29 (+229) at Sportbet.com
Palelei/Wineland/Lentz Parlay. 3 units at 2.25 (+125) at 5Dimes
Herman over Natal. 3 units at 2.05 (+105) at Sportsbook.ag
Tumenov/Salas Parlay. 3 units at at 2.13 (+113) at 5Dimes.