UFC Fight Night 40: Brown vs Silva went down tonight and it was another great night for The Fight Predictor. While our betting record wasn’t overly impressive at 3-2, our profit number was once again pretty solid at +6.12 units. This event marks the fifth straight event we have made money. If you know of a better MMA handicapper, please let us know! By the way, if you haven’t checked out Reed Kuhn’s Fightnomics it is a must read for any UFC fan, or anyone interested in betting on UFC fights.
Our final bet of the night was on the main eventers, Erick Silva and Matt Brown to fight for less than 1.5 rounds. The bet was 2 units at 1.95 (-105), but by fight time, the line had climbed to 2.30. It looked good early on, Silva landed a stiff body kick on Brown and Brown curled up. Silva took his back, but wasn’t able to finish. The second round was all Brown as he landed strike after strike on a gassed Silva. Round 3 was similar to the second, except this time Brown was able to eventually get the finish. We lose our 2 unit bet.
In the middle of the main card, we had Neil Magny to defeat a returning Tim Means. The line was great at the time of betting, we put 2 units on Magny at 3.29 (+229), but by fight time it was up to 3.76 (+276). Things looked good after 1 as it was pretty even for the most part, but Magny dropped Means with a right hand near the end of the round and also scored a takedown mid-round. Round 2 was closer, we gave the edge to Means based on pushing the pace and landing more damaging strikes. Round 3 started with Means leading with a knockdown and some solid strikes landed, but finished with Magny in back mount reigning down strikes for significant time. We scored the fight 29-28 Magny and all 3 judges scored it for Magny as well. We profit 4.58 units on our 2 unit bet.
Ed Herman was our first non-parlay play of the card. We bet 3 units on him at 2.05 (+105) to defeat Rafael Natal, but by fight time, the odds had risen to 2.65 (+165). Herman ended up winning what many were calling a “bad” decision. In our opinion though, the judges got it right. Herman should have won the first, even though he was on the bottom for much of the round. Natal’s top game involved lying on Herman and landing nothing while Herman’s shorter top game saw him land plenty of damaging shots. Round 2 was honestly a toss up with Herman leading in the striking, but Natal leading on the ground. Round 3 stayed on the feet and was definitely Herman’s. The decision win for Herman means we profit 3.15 units.
Unfortunately, we didn’t see Nik Lentz take a unanimous decision win over Manny Gamburyan to complete leg one of our second parlay, but it didn’t matter as Eddie Wineland was the second leg of our the parlay and he was knocked out by Johnny Eduardo in the first round making our parlay a loser and losing our 3 unit parlay.
We didn’t see our first parlay of the night, but it turned out to be a winner as both Albert Tumenov and Justin Salas won by TKO in the first round of their respective fights. We profit 3.39 units.
Our strong run of profitable events continued tonight and we’re hoping it will keep going for the rest of the month of May with 3 more events for us to cap! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
Magny over Means. 2 units at 3.29. (+4.58 units)
Herman over Natal. 3 units at 2.05. (+3.15 units)
Tumenov/Salas Parlay. 3 units at 2.13 (+3.39 units)
Under 1.5 Rounds – Brown/Silva. 2 units at 1.95. (-2.00 units)
Lentz/Wineland/Palelei Parlay. 3 units at 2.25 (-3.00 units)
Event Record: 3-2
Event Profit: +6.12 units