We’re later than usual with these predictions and bets, but as they say, better late than never and with 2 websites going now, our time is split between UFC and MLB. We have been having a pretty successful run of tips on the diamond lately, but the return is still not as good as the 25% return we’ve been averaging with our UFC picks. Anyway, the TUF Brazil 3 Finale goes down tomorrow night so we’re here to bring you the best betting tips available on the web, free or paid. It will be the second of two events on the day featuring a total of 22 fights. Our full predictions and bets have already been posted for the earlier card. This TUF Brazil 3 card gets under way right after the other card, at 6:30 pm ET on Fight Pass.
The main event on this card is a heavyweight fight between Stipe Miocic and Fabio Maldonado. The fight was originally supposed to be Junior Dos Santos vs Miocic, but Dos Santos had to pull out of the bout citing a hand injury on May 5. For Maldonado, that meant just a month of preparation for Miocic, but for the most part we can assume most UFC fighters are in the gym even when not fighting, so the late notice likely doesn’t make a huge difference in this fight. What likely does make a big difference though, is the size advantage Miocic is going to have. While Maldonado is usually a light heavyweight, this fight takes place at heavyweight. Even at light heavyweight though, Maldonado was not a particularly lean guy. The weigh ins actually went down a few hours ago and Miocic weighed in at 238 lbs, while Maldonado was 225 lbs. Our model has Miocic to win the fight, but at current lines, we see this one as unbettable. Miocic has several ways he could win, he could sit back and execute a great game plan (which he usually has and follows to a T), avoiding damage and earning a decision win. The safer path for him would likely be to takedown Maldonado and stay in top control for all 5 rounds. Maldonado’s path to victory is likely either an early knockout, or taking some abuse for the first couple rounds and coming back to take a victory against a tired Miocic like he was able to do in his last fight vs Gian Villante. Regardless, we think Miocic wins more often, but not often enough to include him in a parlay at 1.20 (-500). The over/under line is also tough sitting at 2.5 rounds. The over seems to be more likely to us, but it doesn’t even pay even money, so it’s not something we’re going to bet.
We’re going to skip over the TUF championship bout, as our model doesn’t have a clear choice in either of the fights. The heavyweight finals will be contested between Vitor Miranda and Antonio Carlos Jr while the middleweight finals will be between Marcio Alexandre Jr and Warlley Alves.
In the second fight of the main card, long time UFC vet and jiu jitsu master, Demian Maia takes on Alexander Yakovlev. It doesn’t matter how good you are outside of the UFC, debuting against a guy like Demian Maia who is an ace on the ground and improving on the feet is an extremely tall task. Yakovlev tends to lose to anyone with any name value at all with the lone exception of Paul Daley. In the Daley fight though, the main reason Yakovlev took the decision win was his time spent in top position, but he will be unlikely to execute a similar game plan against the grappling ace in Maia. We decided to place 2 bets on this fight. The first one is including Demian Maia in a parlay, the second is a 2 unit bet on the fight to be under 1.5 rounds at 2.70 (+170) 5Dimes.
The other 2 legs we’ll have in the Maia parlay are Kevin Souza to defeat Mark Eddiva and Pedro Munhoz to defeat Matt Hobar. Munhoz debuted for the UFC in February, with a decision loss to Raphael Assuncao. Debuting against Assuncao would be a tall task, but Munhoz went out and didn’t look as bad as he could have. Now he has the opportunity to dish out a taste of that medicine as he will be facing the debuting Matt Hobar. He realistically should be better in most areas and should pick up a decision win. The other leg of the parlay, Kevin Souza is also a guy we feel is better in most areas than his opponent. Both Souza, and his opponent, Mark Eddiva, are fighting for the second time in the UFC. Our bet is 2 units on Maia/Souza/Munhoz parlay at 2.20 (+120) at 5Dimes.
Our final bet of the event is another parlay as we see Richard Abreu defeating Wagner Silva and Marcos Rogerio De Lima defeating Richardson Moreira. We bet 2 units on the Abreu/De Lima Parlay at 2.24 (+124) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our TUF Brazil 4 Finale Betting tips, we’ll be back early next week with our predictions and bets for UFC Fight Night 42: Henderson vs Khabilov which goes down Saturday, June 7 from Albaquerque, New Mexico. By the way, EA Sports UFC will be coming out next month and based on what we’ve seen of the game so far, it is definitely in every MMA fans best interest to pre-order this game!