UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov goes down tomorrow night and with the majority of our bets already out in our main card predictions and bets, we’re back with one more parlay in our preliminary betting tips. The Fight Predictor will be looking for our fourth straight profit, still a ways away from our record of 6, but getting closer! If you haven’t got your copy of Fightnomics yet, you’re missing out as it breaks down most of the important statistics around MMA outcomes.
Firstly, even though Mike Easton has lost 3 straight, they were against top competition and our model still thinks he can get the job done against Yves Jabouin. Parlayed with Easton will be Daniel Sarafian, who is favoured by our model to defeat Kiichi Kunimoto. The bet is 3 units at 1.80 (-125) at 5Dimes.
In terms of leans on the card, the under 2.5 rounds in the women’s bout between Valerie Letourneau and Elizabeth Philips seems off as it currently sits at 3.20 (+220) or so. That may be worth playing for a unit or so based on the fact that the public overvalues the likelihood of a decision in women’s fights, even though both women have finished the majority of their opponents. Another possibility in that fight is a small bet on Letourneau as we feel she takes it more often than not and the line on both fighters is close to even.
Kajan Johnson is another guy we expect to pick up the victory most of the time. You could even parlay him with Demetrious Johnson who we decided to leave off our betting card for tomorrow’s fights, to get almost even money.
That’s it for UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov. There’s a couple weeks off and then we’ll be back for another double card (at first the double card idea seemed kind of good, but it ends up being a huge amount of prep for us during the week so we’re actually not very big fans!) with our full predictions and bets!
Woodley over MacDonald. 3 units at 1.76 (-132) at Sportbet.com
Bader over Cavalcante. 3 units at 1.75 (-133) at BetOnline
Under 1.5 rounds – Bader/Cavalcante. 2 units at 2.20 (+120) at Pinnacle
St Preux over Jimmo. 3 units at 1.75 (-133) at Pinnacle
Under 2.5 rounds – St Preux/Jimmo. 1.5 units at 2.50 at 5Dimes
Easton/Sarafian Parlay. 3 units at 1.80 (-125) at 5Dimes