UFC Fight Night 43: Te Huna vs Marquardt is just about a week away and we’re here with our main card predictions and betting tips. It will likely be a relatively light card for us in terms of betting as only a couple of the fights can be predicted with our model and even then, we see limited opportunities for laying down money. Obviously, we’d prefer to make a little money by placing smart bets than lose a bunch for being overly aggressive. In terms of recent results, we’ve made a profit in 7 of the last 10 events we’ve had bets on, including a 3 event winning streak which was broken up with our small loss at UFC 174 last weekend. If you haven’t got your copy of Fightnomics yet, you’re missing out as it breaks down most of the important statistics around MMA outcomes.
It will be a busy weekend for the Fight Predictor as there are two fight cards on the same day for the second time in UFC history. Our main card predictions and bets for UFC Fight Night 44: Swanson vs Stephens will also be out this week. UFC Fight Night 43: Te Huna vs Marquardt starts up at 2:30 am ET on Saturday, June 28 with the main card kicking off at 5 am ET. Not great for those of us in North America, but awesome for many of our European counterparts who usually have to stay up to ridiculous hours in order to catch UFC events.
In the main event, James Te Huna will drop down to the middleweight division to face off with Nate Marquardt. Te Huna is 5-3 since debuting in the UFC in 2010 with 3 of his 5 wins coming by TKO, but he still lacks a win over anyone with serious name value. Nate Marquardt was at one point a top 5 middleweight in the UFC, but since being cut and signing with Strikeforce and thus being absorbed as a part of the UFC’s takeover, he has lost 2 straight to Jake Ellenberger and Hector Lombard via KO. At the age of 35 and with 37 career fights behind him, those knockouts are likely indicative of a declining chin. Our model has James Te Huna to win this fight and we see him getting his arm raised next Saturday. Te Huna’s price currently sits around 1.50 (-200) depending on your book, but we see him as a good parlay opportunity so he will be the first leg of our main card parlay. A bet on the under 1.5 rounds is somewhat tempting as it currently sits at 2.35 (+135). We will hold off on placing it however as the majority of the time when Marquardt loses, he loses via decision. Both fighters also have several decision victories, but if you believe either has a significantly declining chin, a bet on the under may make sense.
The second leg of our parlay with James Te Huna will be Robert Whittaker who takes on Mike Rhodes in the opening bout of the pay-per-view card. Whittaker won the TUF Smashes competition in late 2012 and has since gone 1-1 under the UFC banner including a TKO win over Colton Smith and a split decision loss to Court McGee. His opponent Mike Rhodes has only fought once in the UFC, a unanimous decision loss to George Sullivan. We don’t expect Rhodes to be able to handle the big step up in competition that Whittaker will be for him. We bet 3 units at 1.94 (-106) on Te Huna and Whittaker at 5Dimes.
In the other two match-ups on the main card, the underdogs (Palelei and Hioki) are somewhat tempting, but our model leans the other way and betting against the model is generally a recipe for disaster. We’ll be back soon with our main card predictions and bets for UFC Fight Night 44: Swanson vs Stephens so follow on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Te Huna/Whittaker Parlay. 3 units at 1.94 at 5Dimes