UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida goes down this weekend as UFC fight cards continue to come fast and furious. The fights will go down on pay-per-view Saturday night with the prelims on Fox Sports 1 and Fight Pass. The story of this card is crazy line movements. For the most part, favourites have basically become unbettable because they’ve been bet way up by the public so we have limited opportunities for parlays. In addition, we don’t like many dogs on the card so our betting opportunities are very limited. We posted our main event prediction and bet over 4 months ago and it is probably the longest we have ever had to wait for a bet to be contested. If you haven’t got your copy of Fightnomics yet, you’re missing out as it breaks down most of the important statistics around MMA outcomes.
The co-main event of this excellent pay-per-view card features Ronda Rousey defending her UFC women’s bantamweight title against Canadian Alexis Davis. We can start out by stating that our model heavily favours the undefeated champ, Rousey. The problem is, Rousey has been bet like crazy by the public and the line makes her basically unbettable. She currently sits at 1.057 (-1750) which is absurd for any MMA fighter in any fight in our opinion. If you bet Rousey at this level, you’re saying she wins 95% of the time or more. That’s absolutely insane. An MMA fighter probably breaks there hand an average of 5% of the time they step into the octagon so to bet someone at the level where Rousey currently sits is just not smart. In order to profit 1 unit, you’d have to bet 17.5 units. There could be a lot of value when the prop lines come out in something like “not Rousey by submission” because the public seems to think Rousey by early sub is the only way this fight ends. The other line which has been bet to crazy levels is the over/under 2.5 rounds. We have won on the over/unders in Rousey’s last 2 fights and another win on Saturday would be huge. The over 2.5 rounds currently sits at 3.80 (+280) which is where we have decided to make a value play. We bet 1 unit on Rousey/Davis to be over 2.5 rounds at 3.80 (+280) at 5Dimes which we Tweeted earlier today.
In the lone heavyweight bout of the card, Stefan Struve returns from a leaking aortic valve to take on Matt Mitrione. We favour Struve in this one, but as the favourite with the bookies (1.50, -200) we feel he’s not worth a bet. First of all, in his last appearance in the octagon in March of 2013, he suffered a brutal third round knockout defeat against Mark Hunt which left him with a broken jaw. Secondly, a couple months later, he was diagnosed with a heart condition for which he took medication and was allowed to resume training in November, 2013. Had Struve been fighting a normal schedule and not had those two issues, we’d probably be betting him at 1.50. The layoff combined with the injury/illness make him unbettable to us until we see how he performs in his return. That’s not to take anything away from his opponent, Mitrione, who packs huge power in his hands. Mitrione enters the fight after KOing Shawn Jordan in China on the TUF China Finale in March. 6 of Mitrione’s 7 career wins have come via TKO so we know he always has a puncher’s chance in any match-up. Regardless, we like Struve to take the win, potentially via first round submission. The under 1.5 rounds is more than likely going to hit, but also doesn’t have a lot of value at 1.56 (-180).
In the second bout of the main card, middleweights Thiago Santos and Uriah Hall will duke it out. After an impressive performance on The Ultimate Fighter, Uriah Hall’s UFC appearances have left something to be desired, losing decisions to John Howard and Kelvin Gastelum, but winning via TKO over Chris Leben. Realistically, the Chris Leben that Uriah Hall beat was not the best Leben we’d seen in the octagon as he had lost 3 fights in a row and he subsequently retired from active competition. Thiago Santos will be making just his third appearance in the octagon, going 1-1 over his first two fights. He entered the UFC with a 47 second submission loss to Cezar Ferreira which he followed up with a first round TKO win as a huge underdog against Ronny Markes. It did appear in his win over Markes that Markes may have come into the fight injured though so we can’t put too much stake in that performance. We decided to use Uriah Hall in a parlay with Ildemar Alcantara who will be taking on Kenny Robertson on the prelims. We bet 3 units on our Hall/Alcantara Parlay at 2.01 (+101) at 5Dimes.
The second Urijah fighting on the card is long time veteran, Urijah Faber who takes on Alex Caceres in the “main event” of the prelims on Fox Sports 1. This odds on this fight are pretty similar to Rousey/Davis where Rousey opened as, reasonably, a pretty big favourite and got bet down to being a ridiculous favourite. In this case it was Faber who openend as the favourite and Faber who has been bet down to a crazy level. Basically a bet on Faber is saying he loses less than 10% of the time. In all honesty it’s somewhat tempting to bet on the dog, Caceres who has won 5 straight (if you ignore the overturned decision win over Kang Kyung-Ho). The stats basically all favour Caceres. He’s younger, has a longer reach, lands more strikes and absorbs fewer, has a higher takedown accuracy and defense and goes for more submissions. In addition, he’s a southpaw which can give his opponent problems on the feet a lot of the time. It is important to note when discussing the in fight stats, that Caceres has been fighting a lot lower level of competition which means his stats in general will be inflated. Our model, which relies on many of the aforementioned stats actually favours Caceres slightly as well. As a value play, we bet 0.5 units on Caceres at 9.74 (+874) at Sportbet.com.
We just have one parlay on this card with a couple UFC vets fighting on the prelims who we are pretty confident will come away with victory. Firstly, Chris Camozzi will look to rebound from his 2 fight losing streak against Bruno Santos who will be entering the octagon for the second time after losing in his debut to Krysztof Jotko back in December, 2013. We expect Camozzi to be able to control the action and to win a unanimous decision. The second leg of the parlay will be George Roop to defeat the debuting Rob Font. Roop will be a huge step up in competition for the 10-1 Font who will be looking to establish his name in the UFC. The combination of UFC debut and facing a UFC calibre bantamweight will probably be too much for Font. We bet 3 units on our Camozzi/Roop Parlay at 2.11 (+111) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida betting tips. If we decide to add any other bets, they will be posted to our Twitter and Facebook so be sure to follow us on social media for all the latest!
Machida over Weidman. 3 units at 2.77 (+177) at Sportbet.com
Over 2.5 Rounds – Rousey/Davis. 1 unit at 3.80 (+280) at 5Dimes
Caceres over Faber. 0.5 units at 9.74 (+874) at Sportbet.com
Hall/Alcantara Parlay. 3 units at 2.01 (+101) at 5Dimes
Camozzi/Roop Parlay. 3 units at 2.11 (+111) at 5Dimes