We’re just 2 days away from The Ultimate Fighter 19 Finale which features Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn in the main event. It’s not really a card we like from a betting perspective. With a bunch of debuting fighters and the TUF finals, it is a pretty lacklustre card. Even moreso when you consider the fact that it follows up UFC 175 which features title fights in both the main and co-main events. In terms of our recent performance, we have won in 5 of the last 6 events we have bet and 7 of the last 10. Overall, we are up 66.57 units and for every dollar we bet, we average a profit of 20 cents. You can check our full history since UFC 168 in our betting track record. The TUF 19 Finale goes down Sunday night with the fights starting at 6pm ET on Fight Pass.
In the main event, Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn will fight for the third, and least relevant time. We were very surprised after plugging the numbers into our model that BJ Penn is actually slightly favoured. With just 1 fight in over 2 years, at the age of 35 and a reputation of not training, we don’t really see BJ as a great bet even though he sits at over 5.00 (+400). In addition, he will be attempting to cut to featherweight for the first time. A task which shouldn’t be particularly hard given his physique, but one that may be difficult if he isn’t fully committed to the fight. Edgar’s biggest advantage in the match-up should be his hand speed and if he pulls through as we expect him to, it will likely be 5 rounds of his boxing on display. In our opinion, if you absolutely have to bet a side, it’s gotta be Penn, but it’s not one we’re confident enough in to recommend. The fight likely goes to decision, but we tend to stay away from over/under 4.5 lines.
Our first bet of the night will be a 1 unit play on Dustin Ortiz to defeat Justin Scoggins. We feel Scoggins has yet to prove himself and is badly overrated by the public. From a straight pick perspective, we’d have to give Scoggins the advantage, but with just 2 UFC wins coming over Will Campuzano and Richie Vaculik, he doesn’t yet deserve to be a huge favourite. Ortiz will be a good test for Scoggins and with a 2-1 record in the UFC and a history of being in close decisions, the possibility of him leaving the cage Sunday night with a victory is not overly remote. We bet 1 unit on Dustin Ortiz at 3.79 (+279) at Sportbet.com.
In addition to our 1 unit play on Ortiz, we’re recommending 1 parlay for the card. Firstly, in the heavyweight division, we have Derrick Lewis to defeat Guto Inocente. Inocente is a natural light heavyweight who is 6-2 overall and hasn’t fought in over 2 and a half years. Lewis debuted in the UFC in April with a first round TKO win over Jack May and we expect a similar performance on Sunday night against Inocente. In terms of a parlay partner for Lewis, we look to the opening bout of the televised prelims where we see Dan Spohn defeating Patrick Walsh. We bet 3 units on the Lewis/Spohn Parlay at 2.07 (+107) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our TUF 19 Finale: Penn vs Edgar full predictions and bets. Unfortunately we can’t recommend more bets, but of course, betting is always a less is more endeavor. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest.