UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller is just about a week away and we’ll have you covered with predictions and bets for many of the fights on the card! Unfortunately, last weekend was an awful weekend for the fight predictor as we went 1-6 on our bets for a total loss of 10.71 units. We will be making some adjustments to our picks at upcoming events to hopefully return to profitability. Expect the vast majority of our bets for the next little while to either be underdogs or parlays. Enough about the past, let’s get into our picks for Fight Night 45 which goes down Wednesday, July 16 with the prelims starting at 6:30 pm ET on Fight Pass and the televised prelims starting at 7pm ET. The main card kicks off at 9pm ET. If you haven’t got your copy of Fightnomics yet, you’re missing out as it breaks down most of the important statistics around MMA outcomes.
In the main event, Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller will do battle. Cerrone enters the bout on a 3 fight win streak with victories over Evan Dunham, Adriano Martins and Edson Barboza, none of which went to the judges score cards. At 31 years old, Cerrone still appears to be in the prime of his career. One thing we really like about Cerrone’s game is the fact that when he rocks his opponent, he tends to quickly jump on a submission rather than trying to finish with ground and pound. This allows him to be much more successful at finishing fights after rocking his opponent. Jim Miller enters the fight with 2 straight submission wins over Yancy Medeiros and Fabricio Camoes. Miller is also likely in the prime of his career at the age of 30 and he also tends to go for submissions with 13 of his 21 wins being by tap out. We give the kick boxer, Cerrone the advantage on the feet and expect he’ll be able to keep it standing. We feel his is deserving of his status of medium level favourite as the current odds have him at 1.45 (-220).
In the middle of the main card, welterweights Rick Story and Leonardo Mafra will duke it out. Mafra is actually making his redebut into the UFC after receiving a fight at UFC 147 (which was the TUF Brazil 1 finale), which he lost to Thiago Perpetuo via third round TKO. He also lost on TUF Brazil to Cezar Ferreira via second round submission in the quarter finals of the show. Since the show finale in June, 2012, Mafra has won 6 straight via TKO, albeit against a pretty low level of competition. Rick Story has been in the UFC seemingly forever. He debuted in June, 2009 and has a total record of 9-6 for the promotion including a win over current welterweight king, Johny Hendricks. Assuming nothing strange happens in this fight (and lots of strange things seem to be happening in match-ups we bet lately), Story should pick up an easy win, either by submission or unanimous decision. We bet 3 units on a Cerrone/Story Parlay at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes.
Our first underdog pick of the night will be Evan Dunham to defeat Edson Barboza. Barboza has a somewhat misleading 13-2 record. We say misleading primarily because of his victory over Danny Castillo. Castillo landed a huge punch early on which rocked Barboza and he followed it up with 3 minutes of relentless ground and pound, almost stopping Barboza several times. By all accounts it was a 10-8 round. Somehow, the judges scored it 10-9 for Dunham and scored the remaining 2 rounds for Barboza making it a 29-28 Barboza victory. Barboza followed that up with another display of his poor chin by getting rocked and eventually subbed by Donald Cerrone in the first round of their fight. While Dunham doesn’t have the most impressive record at 14-5, we do expect he’ll give Barboza a run for his money and at current odds, there’s value in the dog. We bet 2 units on Dunham at 2.91 (+191) at Sportbet.com.
Our second underdog pick of the night will be Alptekin Ozkilic to defeat John Lineker. We feel the public is badly overvaluing Lineker based on his brutal knockouts and crazy power. The thing about Lineker’s power shots is that it can leave him tired and unable to defend himself, especially late in fights. If Ozkilic can survive the early onslaught of Lineker, he stands a good chance of picking up a decision victory. As we’ve seen in the past, anything can happen in the UFC’s lighest weight class. We bet 2 units on Ozkilic at 3.16 (+216) at Sportbet.com.
Our final underdog play for the main card (yes there’s a ton), is Lucas Martins to defeat Alex White. White sports an impressive 10-0 record, but will be fighting for just the second time in the UFC after dispatching Estevan Payan via TKO in the first round of their match-up back in April. Both men are 25 years old, but Martins is the more experienced fighter, going 13-1 in his career and 2-1 so far in the UFC. This fight may end up being pretty close, but we expect Martins to get the victory more often than not and as an underdog, we feel he’s worth a bet. We bet 2 units on Martins at 2.28 (+128) at Sportbet.com.
That’s it for our main card predictions and bets in what should be a pretty interesting UFC Fight Night card. As you can see, we’re attempting to pick more dogs, mostly because as of late, it seems there’s less value in favourites as they get absolutely hammered by the betting public. Good luck with all your bets and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Cerrone/Story Parlay. 3 units at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes
Dunham over Barboza. 2 units at 2.91 (+191) at Sportbet.com
Ozkilic over Lineker. 2 units at 3.16 (+216) at Sportbet.com
Martins over White. 2 units at 2.28 (+128) at Sportbet.com