UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller goes down tomorrow night and we’re back with our full predictions and bets for the event. You can find the majority of our bets in our main card predictions and bets post which we have had up for about a week now. It’s been a busy week so far as all weeks tend to be when there are 2 UFC events. Recent results have not been as good as we would have liked with an 0-fer at UFC 175 followed up by a slight loss at the TUF 19 Finale. Realistically, we still have an overall ROI of around 16% which is basically the best you’ll find on the net, especially when only looking at free picks. One good thing about losses though is that they force you to adjust your betting patterns and that’s exactly what we’ve done. So you can trust going forward that we are only playing the spots we think have the most value on each and every card. If you’re looking to adjust some of your own betting patterns, we think Sports Betting to Win by Steve Ward is at least worth a quick browse through.
Anyway, the action will kick off at 7pm ET with televised prelims and the main card kicking off at 9pm ET. It kind of sucks ot be subscribed to Fight Pass and not get any exclusive fights at this card, but that’s ok since the second card of the week, UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao will be available exclusively on Fight Pass in North America. Also of note, all fighters weighed in successfully earlier today.
Earlier today we Tweeted our next play for this card because we were worried line movement would make it unplayable. The line on Tibau did move a bit, but we would still recommend a play as long as it stays above 1.60 (-165). The bet we decided on was 3 units on Tibau at 1.71 (-140) at 5Dimes. Healy enters the fight on a 3 fight losing streak, which surprisingly has never happened before in his career even though he has 19 career losses. We feel he is definitely on the decline and we expect Tibau to be able to capitalize. Tibau is a far more impressive 28-10, which is even more impressive when you consider that 21 of his fights have been under the UFC banner while Healy has only fought 4 times for the organization. We expect Tibau should win a relatively easy decision tomorrow night.
We’d like to give you more bets for this card, but the Tibau bet was really the last of the good value we’re seeing. So that’s it for UFC Fight Night 45: Cerrone vs Miller. We’ll have our full predictions and bets for UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao in the next couple days! Whether you choose to tail us or not, good luck with your bets and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Cerrone/Story Parlay. 3 units at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes
Dunham over Barboza. 2 units at 2.91 (+191) at Sportbet.com
Ozkilic over Lineker. 2 units at 3.16 (+216) at Sportbet.com
Martins over White. 2 units at 2.28 (+128) at Sportbet.com
Tibau over Healy. 3 units at 1.71 (-140) at 5Dimes