It was a decent night for the fight predictor. We ended up being above 500 with our bets and when most of your bets are at plus money, that tends to lead to a decent performance. Overall, we went 3-2 for +3.42 units. The profit helps to make up for what has so far been an absolutely terrible month of July.
The first leg of our lone parlay on the night was never in doubt. Story got takedown after takedown on Leonardo and was eventually able to secure a head and arm choke in the middle of round 2. The second leg of the parlay was Donald Cerrone to win the main event against Jim Miller. Round 1 was extremely close, Miller actually hung in surprisingly well on the feet. Round 2 saw Cerrone turn the tide as he landed several brutal kicks to the body which opened up Miller’s head for a head kick finish. We profit 2.73 units.
Our third underdog pick of the night was Evan Dunham to defeat Edson Barboza. We were hoping going in that Dunham would either be able to grind out a decision or he would be able to land a devastating shot on Barboza’s shaky chin. The bet was 2 units at 2.91 (+191). Round 1 looked pretty even, but it took just a single kick from Barboza to Dunham’s liver to get the finish. We lose our 2 unit bet.
After a 2-0 start, we were looking for an Alptekin Ozkilic win to bring us to 3-0 on the night. Our bet was 2 units on Alp to defeat John Lineker at 3.16 (+216). By fight time the line had climed all the way to 4.05 (+305). Round 1 was pretty close, Lineker threw tons of strikes as expected, but Ozkilic was game and seemed to be more accurate with his striking. We had it 10-9 Lineker after 1. Round 2 was pretty similar with Ozkilic just being slightly too slow against Lineker. It was 20-18 Lineker after 2. The third was similar to the first two rounds except with 10 seconds left, Lineker was able to finish the job, winning via TKO. We lost our 2 unit bet.
Our second bet of the night was on the first fight of the main card as we had Lucas Martinns to defeat Alex White. The bet was 2 units at 2.28, but by fight time, the line had climbed to 2.50 (+150). Martins appeared to have a big striking advantage in the first round which was spent entirely on the feet. It was surprising White was even standing at the end of the round with the incredibly solid strikes he endured. Round 2 was much closer, it looked like Martins cardio was letting him down and White was pushing the action. Round 3 looked like a repeat of round 1 with Martins sitting back and countering effectively. Martins eventually landed a solid shot to White’s jaw, rendering White unconscious on his feet. Some follow up strikes by Martins and White was done. We profit 2.56 units.
Our first bet of the night was the “main event” of the prelims as we had Gleison Tibau to defeat Pat Healy. The bet was 3 units at 1.71 (-140). Round 1 was all Tibau. He looked to be the faster, more effective striker and also landed a takedown and some ground and pound. Round 2 started with a Tibau takedown, but not a lot of the round was spent on the ground. We gave Tibau the edge on the feet and a 20-18 advantage in the fight. The third saw the tide turned as Healy was able to win the action on the feet. Tibau did land some strikes though and got a couple takedowns. The judges scored it 30-27, 29-28×2 in favour of Tibau. We profit 2.13 units.
This card helps move us closer to the green for July, with 2 more cards, we stand a good chance of ending the month profitable! Stay tuned for our UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao full predictions and bets which should be out tomorrow night.
Cerrone/Story Parlay. 3 units at 1.91 (-109). (+2.73 units)
Martins over White. 2 units at 2.28 (+128). (+2.56 units)
Tibau over Healy. 3 units at 1.71 (-140). (+2.13 units)
Dunham over Barboza. 2 units at 2.91 (+191). (-2.00 units)
Ozkilic over Lineker. 2 units at 3.16 (+216). (-2.00 units)
Event Record: 3-2
Event Profit: +3.42 units