UFC Fight Night 46: McGregor vs Brandao goes down this Saturday night from Dublin, Ireland. It’s not the worst card for betting, but it’s also not the greatest either (oh, you want a bad card for betting eh? How bout UFC Fight Night 48 from Macau). The bad thing about having UFC fight cards all the time is that it’s kind of draining from a preparation stand point for those of us who provide betting tips. The good thing is losses don’t have time to stew. For example, our awful performance to start July still matters in the grand scheme of things, but we feel much better after Wednesday’s 3.42 unit profit. Be sure to take a look at our track record which is now broken down into UFC and Bellator/small organizations and shows our average ROI is over 20% on UFC cards since we began tracking at UFC 168. Remember that game, “Watch Dogs” that seemed to be promoted on every UFC broadcast? Well it’s now out and looks legit, you can pick up your copy on Amazon.
In the main event, Conor McGregor is taking on Diego Brandao. Make no mistake, we fully expect Mr McGregor to keep the job done at home. The main issue with betting him though is that he currently sits at just better than 1.20 (-500). Betting him at those odds with only 2 career UFC fights against a guy who is 4-2 for the promotion seems a bit crazy in our opinion. Brandao has shown a bad chin in the past though with 5 TKO losses in his 27 career fights so it’s quite possible McGregor gets the TKO. The under 1.5 rounds line which currently sits at 2.30 (+130) is the best value play with Brandao’s historically bad chin and McGregor’s propensity to finish fights early. We bet 1.5 units on McGregor/Brandao to be under 1.5 rounds at 2.30 (+130) at Bookmaker.
Our next bet is a dog play as we have Brad Pickett to defeat Ian McCall. The line on Pickett opened at a pretty reasonable 2.10, but has since climbed as high as 2.54 and currently sits at 2.48. In the UFC’s flyweight division, with 2 relatively evenly matched fighters, 2.48 (+148) is a steal. Add to that the fact that Pickett has a 4 inch reach advantage and is fighting close to home and we’re fully sold on the bet. McCall’s lone UFC win came of Iliarde Santos, but we should note his losses have only come to the top 2 guys, Joseph Benavidez and division champ, Demtrious Johnson. Pickett will be making his second appearance at flyweight in this one with his first result being a unanimous decision win over Neil Seery. At bantamweight, he was always close to the top of the division, but would always find a way to lose when he was just about to be a top contender. Anyway, we bet 2 units on Pickett at 2.48 (+148) at Sportbet.com.
In addition to a couple dog plays on this card, we have a couple of parlays featuring favourites. As the first leg of parlay #1, we have Norman Parke to defeat Naoyuki Kotani. Kotani will be redebuting in the UFC after losing a couple fights for the organization way back in 2007. Since then he has managed to win 13 straight fights, but as we’ve seen time and time again, winning outside of the UFC does not mean you’re going to win in the UFC. Over those 13 fights, he’s basically been beating up cans so it will be interesting to see how he does against the big step up in competition that Parke will be. Kotani’s history has shown that any time he fights any fighter anyone has ever heard of, he loses so expect that trend to continue on Saturday. As for Parke, he’s 3-0-1 under the UFC banner with the draw coming because of a point deducted against Leonardo Santos for grabbing the shorts. We fully expect Parke to get the job done so he is the first leg of our first parlay. Parlayed with Parke will be Ilir Latifi. Latifi enters his fight with Chris Dempsey following a first round submission win over Cyrille Diabate. The fight against Diabate was Latifi’s second in the UFC, the first being a short notice bout with Gegard Mousasi where he lasted 3 rounds, but was outclassed by his superior opponent. Dempsey enters the fight at 10-1, but has yet to fight any tough opponents so Latifi will be a big step up in competition. We feel Latifi gets the job done 80-90% of the time which is why we made him the second leg of our first parlay. We bet 3 units on Latifi and Parke at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes.
Our second parlay is on 2 fights on the undercard as we have Cathal Pendred to defeat Mike King and Josh Sampo to defeat Patrick Holohan. Having Pendred in a parlay makes sense as he’s by far the more proven competitor. He defeated former UFC fighter Che Mills via TKO in his last outing and also holds a draw vs Danny Mitchell who is now in the UFC. In addition he defeated current UFC fighter Nicholas Musoke. For Pendred, fighting Mike King will likely be a step down in competition since King has basically beat up cans on his way to a 5-0 record. King’s last fight against Billy Garris which is available on Youtube kind of shows his typical fighting style is hands down, wing punches which doesn’t work in the UFC. The fight between Sampo and Holohan is pretty much the same deal. Sampo is a UFC vet and should easily dispose of the newcomer with a decent record against unskilled opponents. We bet 3 units at 2.32 (+132) at 5Dimes.
Our last bet of the night is a second underdog play as we have Trevor Smith to defeat Tor Troeng. Smith has fared pretty poorly so far in the UFC going 1-2, but Troeng has only fared marginally better at 1-1. The value on Smith as an underdog mostly comes from the fact that he competes hard in every fight and is decently skilled both on the feet and pretty solid on the ground. We bet 2 units on Smith at 2.53 (+153) at Sportbet.com.
That’s it for our UFC Dublin: McGregor vs Brandao betting tips. Stay tuned next week as we’ll be releasing our betting tips for UFC on Fox 12: Brown vs Lawler. The main event of that card should be absolutely awesome with the winner getting the next crack at Johny Hendricks for the title. As always, stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Under 1.5 Rounds – McGregor/Branndao. 1.5 units at 2.30 (+130) at Bookmaker
Pickett over McCall. 2 units at 2.48 (+148) at Sportbet.com
Parke/Latifi Parlay. 3 units at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes
Pendred/Sampo Parlay. 3 units at 2.32 (+132) at 5Dimes
Smith over Troeng. 2 units at 2.53 (+153) at Sportbet.com