UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs Brown Main Card Predictions and Bets

This Saturday the UFC’s putting on a solid fight card topped by a number one contender fight for the UFC welterweight title between Robbie Lawler and Matt Brown. The fights will be live from the SAP Center in San Jose, California, with the Fight Pass prelims at 4:15 pm ET, the televised prelims at 6pm ET and the main card live at 8pm ET. We’re here to give you our main card predictions and bets. We’re hoping the event will allow us to get back to profit in July which started pretty horribly with 2 straight losses, but has turned around a bit with the last 3 events. Overall, we’re still up 62.01 units for an average return of 17.87%. Our UFC record is even better with an average return of 20.50% and a total return of 63.55 units. Remember that game, “Watch Dogs” that seemed to be promoted on every UFC broadcast? Well it’s now out and looks legit, you can pick up your copy on Amazon.

In the main event, the welterweight number one contendership is on the line as Matt Brown takes on Robbie Lawler. At 33 years old, Brown has had a late career resurgence winning 7 straight after going just 14-11 in his first 25 fights. He has always proven to have a good chin, having yet to be knocked out in his 30 career fights, but has also shown a suscepitbility to being submitted with 9 of his 11 losses coming due to tapout. Lawler’s return to the UFC from Strikeforce in 2013 also seems to have sparked a resurgence for him as he’s 4-1 since returning with his only loss coming to division champ, Johny Hendricks. In terms of a prediction in this one, we expect Lawler to be the more effective striker and expect he’ll go to Brown’s body with kicks early and often. At the current price of 1.29 (-343), we don’t see much value in Lawler. The line on Brown will be one to watch on fight day as we’ve seen in recent history that a lot of money tends to come in on the favourites as the fights approach. If the line on Brown reaches 5.00 (+400) or higher, we’ll likely throw down a unit as a value play. We do feel like there is a good possibility of this fight ending early so we bet 1.5 units on the under 2.5 rounds line at 1.71 (-140) at Pinnacle.

As for the main card, the only other play we like as of now is Clay Guida to defeat Dennis Bermudez. It’s kind of surprising that Guida even opened as the underdog considering he is ranked ahead of Bermudez in the UFC’s rankings (I know, I know, these rankings are not the greatest measure of a fighter’s skill and don’t consider styles, but it’s still surprising). Guida is 32 years old and has been fighting in the UFC seemingly forever. His fights generally tend to be pretty exciting and he has pretty decent all around skill. Since dropping down to featherweight from lightweight, Guida is 2-1 with his only loss coming to division number 1 contender, Chad Mendes. His opponent, Dennis Bermudez is 27 years old and has to be one of the only UFC fighters on the roster to enter the UFC on a two fight losing streak. He extended that losing streak to 3 by losing The Ultimate Fighter 14 to Diego Brandao, but has since then looked great, winning 6 straight. Clay Guida is likely the toughest opponent Bermudez has ever faced so it will be interesting to see how he handles the step up. Win or lose, we feel the value is on the dog in this fight which is why we bet 2 units on Guida at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag.

In terms of main card betting tips for UFC on Fox 12, this article lists our only 2. We will be back later in the week when the main card odds are released with our full predictions and bets. Remember to hit us up on Twitter and Facebook with any questions or comments!

Bets

Under 1.5 Rounds – Lawler/Brown. 1.5 units at 1.71 (-140) at Pinnacle
Guida over Bermudez. 2 units at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag

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