UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs Brown is just 2 days away and we have you covered with betting tips for the card from top to bottom! We posted our main card predictions and bets earlier this week so check that out for full breakdowns of our main card bets. In terms of recent performance, we have won 6 of the last 7 months and if we can have a decent performance this Saturday, July 26, we will be profitable in 7 of the last 8 months. Our UFC betting track record is second to none with an ROI of 20.50%. If you’re looking to adjust some of your own betting patterns, we think Sports Betting to Win by Steve Ward is at least worth a quick browse through.
In the first fight of the main card, top 15 lightweights Josh Thomson and Bobby Green will do battle. We think Thomson is deserving of his status as the decently heavy favourite in this one and will be adding him to a parlay. Thomson’s only career losses have come to division greats, Gilbert Melendez and Benson Henderson as well as a loss to Tatsuya Kawajiri back in 2010. At 35 years of age and with 26 career fights under his belt, we still feel he can make a run at the UFC title if he manages to rattle off 2 or 3 straight wins this year or early next year. His younger opponent, 27 year old Bobby Green had won 4 straight in Strikeforce before debuting in the UFC in February, 2013 where he has been able to win 3 straight. While a 7 fight win streak is pretty decent for any fighter, Green has yet to win against any really big names (Pat Healy likely being the biggest). The fight against Thomson is a big opportunity for Green to show he belongs in the top 10, but we just can’t see him overcoming the huge step up in competition that Thomson will be. That’s why Thomson is the first leg of our first parlay at UFC on Fox 12.
The second leg of the Josh Thomson parlay will be Pat Cummins. Cummins will be taking on Kyle Kingsbury who has been out of action for almost 2 full years and is on a 3 fight losing streak in the UFC. It seems the public is underrating Cummins in this position, likely because he only has 6 career fights and is 1-1 in the UFC. It is important to note though that Cummins is a very solid wrestler and his lone UFC loss was a short notice appearance against Daniel Cormier (who was named #1 contender for the light heavyweight title yesterday). We fully expect Cummins to be able to walk through Kingsbury, especially if Kingsbury has deteriorated during his 2 years out of the octagon. We placed a 3 unit bet on our Thomson/Cummins parlay at 2.31 (+131) at 5Dimes.
Our second underdog bet of the card will be on the second fight of the televised prelims between Tim Means and Hernani Perpetuo. Tim Means is only 2-3 in his UFC career and has lost 3 straight and people seem to be overvaluing him against Perpetuo. Means lost 2 straight in 2013 and was cut from the promotion. He returned with a loss against Neil Magny (where we predicted Magny would win as a decent sized underdog) in May, 2014. Perpetuo will be appearing in the Octagon for the second time after losing a split decision against Jordan Mein in his debut at UFC on Fox 11 in April. At 3.15 (+215), we think Perpetuo gets the job done often enough for their to be value on him. We placed a 2 unit bet on Perpetuo at 3.15 (+215) at Sportsbook.ag.
Our second parlay of the night will feature Steven Siler and Tiago Dos Santos. Siler takes on Noad Lahat who is 0-1 in the UFC after suffering potentially the knockout of the year at the hands of a flying knee by Godofredo Castro. Siler is the UFC vet having fought 9 times for the promotion and going 5-3. We don’t expect Lahat to be able to handle the step up in competition which is why we made Siler the first leg of our second parlay. With Tiago Dos Santos debuting in the UFC, this second parlay is a little more risky than the first. Obviously, if you’ve watched a significant amount of UFC fights, you’ll be well aware that guys can fight way better than they have in the past, but can also fight way worse when debuting in the UFC. Barring any major letdowns though, we expect the 18-4 Tiago Dos Santos to be able to easily defeat his opponent, the 22-7 Akbarh Arreola. We bet 2 units on Siler and Dos Santos at 2.04 (+104) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our full predictions and bets for UFC on Fox 12: Lawler vs Brown. We’ll have a much needed rest after this card with 2 straight weekends with no UFC cards leading up to UFC Fight Night 47: Bader vs St Preux. Good luck with whatever you decide to bet and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Under 2.5 Rounds – Lawler/Brown. 1.5 units at 1.71 (-140) at Pinnacle
Guida over Bermudez. 2 units at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag
Thomson/Cummins Parlay. 3 units at 2.31 (+131) at 5Dimes
Perpetuo over Means. 2 units at 3.15 (+215) at Sportsbook.ag
Siler/Dos Santos Parlay. 2 units at 2.04 (+104) at 5Dimes