UFC Fight Night 49: Henderson vs Dos Anjos will be the second of two events to go down this Saturday, August 23, 2014. After a decent start to the month, we’re hoping we’ll be able to make it 3 straight profits to start the month after a pretty bad month of July. Overall, we’re still up over 54 units and have been profitable in 7 of the last 9 months. Our overall ROI sits at 14.80% and our UFC ROI is currently at 16.89%. If you know of someone who is doing better at capping the hugely volatile MMA market, let us know as we’d be interested in seeing their picks! Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest! We’ll have betting tips for UFC 177, UFC Fight Night 48 and UFC Fight Night 49 coming out this week.
The main event at this event features a 5 round fight between Benson Henderson and Rafael Dos Anjos. We fully expect this fight to go the distance and like many Benson Henderson fights, it could quite possibly be a close decision. At 1.33 (-300), we don’t like the idea of risking our money on Henderson even though we expect he comes away with the decision win. Dos Anjos was pretty up and down in his early UFC careeer, going 4-4 before the start of his current 6-1 run including wins over Donald Cerrone, Evan Dunham and Jason High. Henderson won and defended the UFC lightweight title 3 times before losing to current champ, Anthony Pettis by submission. Since then he picked up a questionable decision over Josh Thompson and a fourth round submission over Rustam Khabilov (his first finish since April, 2010). In our opinion, this fight is a dog or pass situation, but not a dog we will play at the current line of 3.90 (+290). As the fight approaches, should this line climb to 4.50 (+350) or 5.00 (+400) we will likely make a small 1 unit play on Dos Anjos. Regardless, our pick is Benson Henderson by decision.
Our first bet of the night will be on the second fight of the main card which is a lightweight battle between James Vick and Walmir Lazaro. Vick is 5-0 so far in his MMA career and was able to submit Ramsey Nijem in his UFC debut pretty much exactly one year ago. In addition to his 5 pro wins, he went 3-1 on The Ultimate Fighter Live, losing in the semi-finals to eventual winner Michael Chiesa. His opponent, the debuting Walmir Lazaro is 12-2 in his career, but as is the case with many Brazilian fighters, the majority of his wins have been against relatively weak opponents and the fight against Vick will be the toughest of his career. Add to that UFC jitters and the fact that we think on any given day, Vick is the more skilled fighter of the two and we don’t see Lazaro winning very often. With the line still somewhat close, we felt the time is right to place a bet so we bet 2 units on James Vick at 1.68 (-147) at Pinnacle.
Our second bet of the night will be on the opener of the main card. We see Tom Niinimaki defeating Chas Skelly to open the card. Niinimaki had his hype train derailed as he lost via bulldog choke to Niklas Backstrom at the end of May after opening his UFC career with a split decision win over Rani Yahya. The Backstrom loss brought Niinimaki to 21-6-1 overall. Skelly will be fighting in the UFC for the second time with his first appearance being a majority decision loss to Mirsad Bektic. Skelly’s loss brought him to 11-1 on his career. We think the public is overweighting Niinimaki’s loss to Backstrom where he actually looked to be winning before taking a knee and getting submitted. We bet 2 units on Niinimaki at 1.74 (-136) at Pinnacle.
Our third early bet of the card will be on Beneil Dariush to defeat Tony Martin. It is the riskiest of the three picks outlined here, but pays accordingly. Dariush entered the UFC with a 6-0 record and defeated Charlie Brenneman by submission in less than 2 minutes. His second UFC appearance didn’t go so well as he lost by first round TKO to Ramsey Nijem in April. The loss brought Dariush to 7-1 on his career. His opponent, Tony Martin will be fighting in the UFC for the second time after losing to Rashid Magomedov by unanimous decision in his UFC debut. He currently sits at 8-1, but we expect that will be 8-2 after a defeat on Saturday to Dariush. We bet 2 units on Dariush at 1.91 (-110) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our early betting tips for UFC Fight Night 49: Henderson vs Dos Anjos. We’ll hold off on our underdog picks this week as they tend to climb as the public parlays the crap out of favourites throughout the week. In addition, stay tuned as we’ll have betting tips for UFC Fight Night 49 which also goes down Saturday and UFC 177 which is a week Saturday coming out throughout the week. Be sure to pick up your copy of Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn for the most complete analysis of a wide variety of MMA statistical trends!