We’re less than 48 hours away from the first of two UFC events this weekend, UFC Fight Night 48: Bisping vs Le and we’re here to bring you our full predictions and bets for what amounts to a relatively weak card from Macau, China. Honestly, besides the main and co-main event, there’s not much to get excited about on this card. Because of the relative weakness of the card, we only have 2 bets to recommend and they are both on fighters who will be fighting on the prelims. Speaking of bets, our betting tips were on point at UFC Fight Night 47, where we went 2-2 for +3.77 units (keep in mind 2 of our 3 bets were underdogs). Overall, our profit on UFC events since UFC 168 sits at 55.82 units which equates to an average ROI of 16.89%. You can always check our UFC betting track record for more details! Be sure to pick up your copy of Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn for the most complete analysis of a wide variety of MMA statistical trends!
Unfortunately, we won’t be placing a bet on the main event at this card. Like almost everyone, we see Bisping winning the majority of the time. The issue is, with a line of 1.35 (-282), we would need him to win 74% of the time. Even if you think he wins 85 or 90% of the time, the value isn’t huge. In addition, there’s a complete lack of potential parlay partners so we will abstain from a bet on Bisping at this card. The over/under has also been hit hard by the betting public, now sitting at over 2.5 rounds paying 1.47 (-214). While we’d really like to be able to put some money on this fight, we just don’t see any value. Bisping, a perrenial top middleweight, has gone 2-3 in his last 5 outings and will be trying to start his climb back into the title picture with a big win over Cung Le. Generally, Bisping’s history has shown that he can win against middle and lower tier fighters, but he can never seem to win the big fights against the upper tier guys. We don’t see Cung Le as an upper tier guy with TKO losses to Wanderlei Silva and Scott Smith on his record. His heavy hands and feet and unorthodox striking do make him dangerous to basically any opponent who chooses to stand and trade. We expect Bisping to try to stand and trade and while most of the time he will be successful, the off chance that Le gets a freak knock out will keep us away from betting this fight.
In the co-main event, powerful welterweights Dong Hyun Kim and Tyron Woodley will do battle. Woodley currently sits at 13-3, but is somewhat of an anomaly in the fighting world as most of his early wins came by submission, his mid-career wins came by decision and his recent wins have come by TKO. Generally, fighters will win their early career fights quickly as they are facing a low level of competition, and score more decision wins once they make it to the UFC. Woodley sits at 3-3 in his last 6 with losses to Nate Marquardt, Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald and wins over Jay Hieron, Josh Koscheck and Carlos Condit. He seems to be cementing himself in the upper tier of the UFC’s welterweight division. Dong Hyun Kim sports an even more impressive overall record at 19-2-1 (1). His only career losses (in a career that includes 13 UFC fights) are to Demian Maia (injury) and Carlos Condit (KO). He is currently riding a 4 fight win streak and will be looking to get into title contention with a big win over Woodley. In terms of our pick, we expect Woodley wins most of the time. Unfortunately, the line on Woodley has fallen from opening at 1.87 (-115) to the current level of 1.61 (-165) where we don’t really see it as favourable for a bet. If you feel like a war on the feet, you may want to bet the under which is at 2.5 rounds and 2.40 (+140), but that doesn’t really appeal to us either.
Our first bet of the night will be on the fourth bout of the prelims as UFC vet Roland Delorme takes on Japanese fighter and first time UFC fighter Yuta Sasaki. Delorme’s overall record sits at 9-3 (1) and he’s 3-2 (1) in his UFC career with a knockout loss to Francisco Rivera changed to a no contest because Rivera was busted for failing a drug test. Delorme is the older of the two fighters at 30 years of age. His opponent, Yuta Sasaki is 24 and sports an overall record of 17-1-2. In addition, he sits on an 11 fight unbeaten strike fighting in Shoot, Vale Tudo and Deep in Japan. We expect Sasaki will be able to come away with a decision win on Saturday morning (morning to us in North America). With decent odds, we placed a 2 unit bet on Sasaki at 1.77 (-130) at Sportsbook.ag.
Our second bet of the night is on the lone women’s bout of the card. Generally, we’d stay away from two fighters with such little experience, but in this case, we think the line justifies making a play. The fight will feature the 10-3 Milana Dudieva taking on the 4-2 Elizabeth Philips. Philips made her debut getting edged out in a split decision by Valerie Letourneau. Dudieva’s biggest asset is her ground game with 6 of her 10 victories coming by way of submission. We expect Dudieva to get this to the ground where she should have a big advantage on Philips. We placed a 2 unit bet on Dudieva at 1.78 (-129) at BetOnline.
That’s it for our betting tips for UFC Fight Night 48: Bisping vs Le. Stay tuned tomorrow night as we’ll have our full predictions and bets for UFC Fight Night 49: Henderson vs Dos Anjos and we promise there will be at least a couple dog picks on that card! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!