UFC double header day is almost upon us! Tomorrow marks the third day the UFC has run two consecutive events and our opinion so far is meh. On the one hand, more fights mean more bets mean more profit. On the other hand more fights mean more fighters mean a watered down product. As Dana White says though, these international cards (Europe, Asia, etc) aren’t necessarily intended for those of us in North America, their intention is to work on growing a global brand while also giving local prospects an avenue to grow in the organization. Anyway, the second of two cards tomorrow will be UFC Fight Night 49: Henderson vs Dos Anjos which will start up on Fight Pass at 7:30 pm before transitioning to Fox Sports 2 for the prelims at 8pm and Fox Sports 1 for the main card at 10pm. We already posted our early predictions and bets so this post will focus on a few underdogs to add to our early favourite betting tips! Be sure to pick up your copy of Fightnomics by Reed Kuhn for the most complete analysis of a wide variety of MMA statistical trends!
First up, in the co-main event of the card, the #15 UFC middleweight, Thales Leites will be taking on the #12 UFC middleweight Francis Carmont. The jiu jitsu specialist, Leites sits at 23-4 overall and has won 3 straight since returning to the UFC after being cut in 2009. If anything, being cut seems to have inspired the 32 year old Leites as he looks to be in better form than ever, even earning his first career UFC knockout win against Trevor Smith in his last outing. Carmont currently sits at 22-9, but is riding a 2 fight losing streak and likely needs a win to stick around in the UFC. In his last outing, he lost to CB Dolloway via unanimous decision. Prior to that, he lost via unanimous decision to Ronaldo Souza, but we won’t put too much stake in that as Souza has looked unreal against everyone as of late. His last win came against Costa Philippou in a pretty boring affair where he used his grappling to take down and control the boxing style of Philippou. It is not a strategy that will work nearly as well against fighters with decent takedown defense or fighters who are a threat off their back. We think the value in this fight lies squarely on the dog, Leites. We placed a 2 unit bet on Leites at 2.45 (+145) at 5Dimes.
Next up, in the middle of the card, welterweights Jordan Mein and Mike Pyle with duke it out. We feel Mein is overhyped in this spot. Sure, he is the younger fighter, but at 28-9, he has shown he can both win and lose against a wide variety of fighters. His latest fight against Hernani Perpetuo, was a specific case of a disappointing effort where he was only able to win a split decision loss against an opponent he should have been far better than. There is a possibility that his 1 year layoff had a big impact on that fight and he comes out tomorrow night looking far better with only 4 months between fights. We do think Mike Pyle will be a step up in competition for Mein and the line on this fight is off. At 38 years old, time is not on the side of Pyle. Add to that the fact that he has 4 career knockout losses and you worry that he can get clipped and knocked out at any point in any fight. If Pyle is to win this fight, he needs to get it to his best area which is the ground. Of his 26 career wins, 16 have come by way of submission and this will be his best chance of winning against his younger opponent, Mein. We think the odds of Pyle being able to drag Mein to the ground and lock up a submission are decent enough to justify a bet. Alternatively, if Mein is on top, we know Pyle is a threat off his back to lock something up. We placed a 2 unit bet on Pyle at 3.15 (+215) at 5Dimes.
Finally, a guy we’ve had success betting on in the past is Neil Magny. He fights tomorrow night against Alex Garcia in a welterweight scrap on the prelims and we will be betting on Magny once again. Magny has shown improvement recently, especially in his May, 2014 unanimous decision win over Tim Means where he displayed a pretty decent ability to use his reach and jab to keep Means at bay. In addition, this will be Magny’s seventh UFC appearance, so it should be much less shocking entering the octagon than it will be for his opponent who is only making his third UFC appearance. Garcia is a hugely hyped up prospect, but we feel he is not deserving of all the hype he gets. Sure he TKO’d Ben Wall in his UFC debut, but Wall was a guy who should have probably never been fighting in the UFC. He followed that up with a split decision win over Sean Spencer where Garcia was a pretty big favourite. For some reason the split decision win hasn’t seemed to have hampered the hype on Garcia even though we feel it should have. For that reason, we placed a 2 unit bet on Magny at 2.37 (+137) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our underdog betting tips for UFC Fight Night 49: Henderson vs Dos Anjos. We’ll look forward to a day filled with UFC action as we’re sure our followers will too. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Leites over Carmont. 2 units at 2.45 (+145) at 5Dimes
Pyle over Mein. 2 units at 3.15 (+215) at 5Dimes
Vick over Lazaro. 2 units at 1.68 (-147) at Pinnacle
Niinimaki over Skelly. 2 units at 1.74 (-136) at Pinnacle
Magny over Garcia. 2 units at 2.37 (+137) at Pinnacle
Dariush over Martin. 2 units at 1.91 (-110) at Pinnacle