With Henry Cejudo and Renan Barao succumbing to their weight cuts, we’re left with an 8 fight card which is looking like the worst UFC pay-per-view in company history. In addition, our bets on Dillashaw and Soto to win their respective bouts go out the window. We were anticipating adding 2 bets to our card in this post, but one of those bets was going to bet Scott Jorgensen to defeat Henry Cejudo as an underdog, but that’s obviously off the table now. Regardless, we will try to bring you the best value on the card with what’s left. Our main card predictions and bets came out earlier in the week so check those out for our rational behind the Correia pick. Make a point to take a look through the book, Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball which is a great read for any sports bettor; you may even pick up some tips for your own betting.
The first add we have is a bet on the co-main event of the card as we think Danny Castillo has a good chance of surprising basically everyone and winning his bout versus Tony Ferguson. Ferguson, at 30 years old has built a pretty impressive UFC resume going 5-1 with his lone loss coming to Michael Johnson by decision. Not only has he won 5 fights, but he has done it in devastating fashion with 4 out of 5 of those wins coming by way of first round stoppage. Even though we give Ferguson the edge in the fight, we think the value is squarely on the dog, Danny Castillo as he currently sits at 3.30 (+230). Castillo is 35 years old and has been fighting in the WEC/UFC since June, 2008. He has amassed a 12-6 record across the two organizations, but many of the losses have been against pretty good competition. Castillo won’t be a fish out of water on the feet as he has some TKO/KO finishes of his own, but his best chance of taking this fight is to get it to the ground and maintain top position on Ferguson. We think that happens more than the 30% or so amount of the time that we need him to win which is why we bet 2 units on Castillo at 3.30 (+230) at 5Dimes.
Our second addition will be Damon Jackson to defeat Yancy Medeiros. This fight should be pretty close, but we expect the former Legacy FC champ, Jackson, to be able to take care of the 9-2 (1) Yancy Medeiros. Medeiros’s UFC record has left something to be desired. While he would be 1-2 (had he not had his win over Yves Edwards overturned for marijuana), he currently sits at 0-2 (1) and is likely on the verge of being cut should he lose this fight. Jackson will be debuting for the UFC with a 9-0 record, but his 9-0 record is better than most debuting in the UFC as it includes a couple Bellator wins and a few Legacy wins including a win over former UFC fighter Leonard Garcia. We were on the fence on this one, but with Medeiros missing weight on his first attempt, we felt it was time to pull the trigger. We bet 2 units on Jackson at 2.00 (+100) at Bookmaker.
That’s it for our UFC 177 full betting tips. It’s probably not as exhaustive as what you were looking for and to be honest we’re pretty disappointed with the quality of the card. Regardless, we’d rather not give out a lot of tips that make you less money so we’ll stick with just a few picks. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!