This Friday’s UFC Fight Night 50: Jacare vs Mousasi II is a really stacked card, especially for a free TV event. We’ll be looking to get back to profitable after a small loss at UFC 177, but luckily we have tons of cards in September and early October to make some money on. In terms of our overall performance, we are up a total of 60.55 units for an average ROI of 15.51%. We have made money on 7 of the last 9 months and 3 of the last 4 events. All this is detailed in our betting tips track record. Make a point to take a look through the book, Trading Bases: How a Wall Street Trader Made a Fortune Betting on Baseball which is a great read for any sports bettor; you may even pick up some tips for your own betting.
The main event of this card from Ledyard, Connecticut features a rematch of Strikeforce standouts Gegard Mousasi and Ronaldo Souza. In their first match-up, way back in September, 2008, Mousasi was able to land an upkick just over 2 minutes into the fight which rendered Souza unconscious. The loss was just Jacare’s second of his career and to this day he has only lost one other fight to Luke Rockhold. Both Mousasi and Souza are consensus top 10 middleweights in a crowded UFC middleweight division and a couple decisive wins by either would likely see them fighting for the belt. Both men have fared decently well in the UFC so far, Souza has managed to rattle off 3 straight wins, 2 by first round stoppage while Mousasi is 2-1 with his only loss to former number 1 contender Lyoto Machida. The odds indicate Souza wins the majority of the time with the line on him currently sitting at 1.30 (-333). We’re not as confident as the betting public, but we do think Souza should get the job done. There’s actually a couple lines that we like on this fight. Firstly, since we do see this as a dog or pass situation, we bet 0.5 units on Mousasi to get the win at 3.69 (+269) at Sportbet.com. Secondly, the under seems to be a little skewed with both guys showing good finishing prowress in previous fights. Therefore, we bet 0.5 units on the fight to be less than 2.5 rounds at 2.95 (+195) at 5Dimes.
The co-main event features knockout artists Alistair Overeem and Ben Rothwell. We don’t see this one lasting long, but Overeem is a tough guy to figure out and has burned us before so we’re going to hold off on betting the under 1.5 rounds which is currently sitting at 1.61 (-165). Seeing Overeem as a big favourite is pretty familiar to us as we actually bet him to defeat Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva back in February, 2013. What transpired was one of the dumbest things a fighter has ever done as Overeem was dominant for the first two rounds sitting back and picking his shots. In the third round though, he decided to be ultra-aggressive and got caught by Silva and eventually TKO’d costing us our bet. When a guy has fight IQ as bad as Overeem, there’s no way as hell we will be betting him as a heavy favourite. In addition, his opponent, Ben Rothwell is not particularly great so we expect Overeem to win most of the time as long as he doesn’t act like an idiot. All in all, while we think Overeem wins, we can’t justify placing a bet with the current line at 1.20 (-489).
We’ll actually only be recommending 1 non-micro bet in this post and that will be Michael Chiesa to defeat Joe Lauzon. Even though Chiesa is 26 years old and has 4 UFC wins and just 1 loss and appears to be improving every time he goes out, he doesn’t seem to get a lot of love from the betting public. Besides his win over Mac Danzig (who was 3-7 in his last 10 at the time), Joe Lauzon hasn’t really done much lately. That fight was 9 months ago and prior to that he hadn’t had a win since an August, 2012 submission win over Jamie Varner. At 30 years old and with 32 career professional fights, almost half of which have been in the octagon, you gotta expect Joe Lauzon will start (or has already started) to decline. We think he has already begun to decline, but even if he hadn’t we think there’d be value in Chiesa in this spot. We bet 3 units on Chiesa at 1.71 (-140) at BetOnline.
That’s it for our early predictions and bets. We will have at least 1 more post on Friday and potentially a middle of the week post as well. Remember to stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all the latest.