UFC Fight Night 51: Bigfoot vs Arlovski will go down this Saturday from the UFC’s new favourite country, Brazil. For The Fight Predictor, it will mark our first foray into paid betting tips, but don’t worry, the majority of our picks will continue to be free. We will have more information about that in our full predictions and bets, but for now, our early picks which consist primarily of favourites will continue to be free. In terms of our recent results, 8 of our last 11 months have been profitable including September so far as we kicked the month off with 2 big wins on underdogs at UFC Fight Night 50: Jacare vs Mousasi. You can always check out a summary of our results along the side bar or go to our Betting Track Record. Regardless, no service on the web gives MMA winners as consistently as we do so when we begin charging for our picks, it will be money well spent. To be updated on the release of our paid picks, follow us at Sellfy.
We’ll be staying away from the main event in this one even though we think the under 1.5 rounds has a decent shot at cashing. Andrei Arlovski and Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva will do battle in Silva’s home country of Brazil. At 35 years old and with 33 brutal fights behind him, we think Arlovski is nearing retirement and will keep declining in his future appearances. Silva is only a year younger at 34, but has 9 less career fights at 24 and 4 TKO losses compared to Arlovski’s 7. If we were to lean a side at the current line with Arlovski at 4.73 (+373) and Silva at 1.26 (-387), we would lean Arlovski, but it is not confident enough for us to place a bet. Our pick is Silva by first round TKO.
Our first bet of the night will be on the co-main event as we see Gleison Tibau defeating Piotr Hallman. The worrying part about Tibau in this spot is the fact that he has 39 career fights and is 31 years old. He has shown with his recent performances though, including wins over Varner and Healy, that he still has the ability to get the job done at the UFC level. Hallman is 2-1 in UFC competition so far, but the fight against Healy will be a big test and a huge step up in competition for the 27 year old. We expect Hallman to have difficulty with his bigger opponent and this could very well end up being 3 rounds of Tibau in top control. We placed a 3 unit bet on Tibau at 1.48 (-208) at Pinnacle.
Our second bet of the night will be another favourite as we have Wendell Oliveira to defeat Santiago Ponzinibbio. The 24-7 Oliveira will be debuting in the octagon riding a 7 fight winning streak. Ponzinibbio will be fighting in the UFC for the second time, debuting with a relatively one sided loss to Ryan LaFlare. His current career record sits at 18-2. We expect Saturday will be his second straight UFC loss and our model agrees. We bet 3 units on Oliveira at 1.87 (-115) at Sportsbook.ag.
Our final 2 early betting tips for this card will be on the third and fourth fights of the undercard and will also feature bets on favourites. We placed a 3 unit bet on Igor Araujo to defeat George Sullivan at 1.62 (-161) at Pinnacle and a 3 unit bet on Francisco Trinaldo at 1.60 (-166) at Pinnacle. For Araujo, Saturday will be his third UFC fight and so far so good as he’s 2-0 with 2 unanimous decision wins. His opponent George Sullivan sits at 1-0 in UFC competition, but Araujo will mark a big step up in competition. Trinaldo will be making his 8th UFC appearance and has been relatively up and down so far with a record of 4-3. His opponent, Leandro Silva will be making his UFC re-debut (after losing about a year ago and then fighting outside of the organization) and it will be a big step up in competition facing the UFC vet.
That’s it for our early picks and bets. Remember to sign up for updates on our Sellfy page so you can be updated when our paid picks are released. We are hoping to release them Friday evening so stay tuned. We will also keep you updated if you follow us on Twitter and Facebook.
Tibau over Hallman. 3 units at 1.48 (-208) at Pinnacle
Oliveira over Ponzinibbio. 3 units at 1.87 (-115) at Sportsbook.ag
Araujo over Sullivan. 3 units at at 1.62 (-161) at Pinnacle
Trinaldo over Silva. 3 units at 1.60 (-166) at Pinnacle