We are just 3 nights (since for us in North America Friday night doesn’t really count) from UFC Fight Night 52: Hunt vs Nelson which will be live on UFC Fight Pass from Japan beginning at the unreal hour of 12:30 am ET. We’re here with our early predictions and bets for the event. Remember to follow us on Sellfy for updates when our paid picks come out, or alternatively follow us on Twitter where we also post all relevant updates. Last week was the first week we offered paid picks and they did reasonably well. Including free picks, we were up just over a unit, but if you only consider the underdogs we recommended as a part of our paid picks package, we went 2-1 for a profit of more than 2 units which is equivalent to an ROI of over 30%!
In what is most likely the highest combined body fat percentage of any UFC main event in history, Roy “Big Country” Nelson will take on Mark Hunt. Hunt will be fighting for the first time since his 2013 fight of the year contender against Antonio Silva. Considering he only signed with the UFC at the age of 36 in 2010, the fact that Hunt is 4-2 (1) is really quite impressive. He has always been known for having great kickboxing, being a former K-1 champion, but lately he has shown pretty decent takedown defense and slightly improved ground game. Roy Nelson is also getting up there in age, he’s now 38 and had lost 2 straight before knocking out a dramatically slower Rodrigo Nogeuira. Nelson has in the past shown the ability to get really bad wrestlers down, but not with too much consistency as his takedown accuracy is just 18%. One of the biggest factors in leaning towards Hunt in this fight is the fact that Nelson has had some downright bad performances and we are chalking this up to him being on the way out, while Hunt has looked to be at his best ever. We already Tweeted our bet in this fight, but it was a 3 unit bet on Hunt at 1.69 (-145) at 5Dimes. The line on Hunt had fallen slightly, but has recently gone back up, so now would be a good time to place your bet!
There’s not really too much to say about the co-main event on this card. We fully expect the undefeated Myles Jury to get the job done. At 14-0 and with 5 straight in the UFC, Jury should easily defeat Takanori Gomi. Gomi is 35-9 overall and 4-3 in the UFC. The issue is, with Gomi fighting in front of a home crowd and the fact that he has pretty high output, he might be able to pull off a very controversial split decision. Because of this, we are not willing to lay 1.22 (-450) on Jury. In our opinion it’s too much risk for too little reward, but we definitely expect Jury to get the job done.
Our second bet for the event will be Michinori Tanaka to defeat Kyung Ho Kang. Tanaka has compiled an impressive 10-0 record at the age of 23 including a unanimous decision win over Roland Delorme in his UFC debut at UFC 174 in June. His opponent, Kyung Ho Kang is not much older at 27, but has a far less impressive record at 12-7 and 1-1-1 in UFC competition (he lost a split decision to Alex Caceres which was later overturned when Caceres tested positive for marijuana). We expect Tanaka to get the job done early Saturday morning in the third fight of the prelims. So much so that we placed a 3 unit bet on Tanaka at 1.59 at BetOnline.