UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso is just 48 hours away and we have you covered with our full predictions and bets which are now available for just $9.95 (or $4.97 if you share with social media) on our Sellfy page. Generally, our paid picks will mostly be our underdog selections and so far they have been incredibly successful going 3-2 over the first two events where we’ve provided paid picks. 3-2 doesn’t seem particularly good at first glance, but when you consider every pick is paying between 2.00 (+100) and 3.50 (+250), it seems a lot better. Overall, we have managed a profit in 80% of the months we have tracked for a total profit of 63.13 units and an average return of 16.04% which is the best in the MMA capper business. Without further adue though, let’s get into our free picks for the event.
Firstly, in the main event, Demetrious Johnson will be defending his UFC flyweight title against Chris Cariaso. If we’re being honest, the 17-5 overall and 3-2 in his last 5 Cariaso is not really deserving of this title shot. The UFC introduced fighter rankings as a way to legitimize the top contender for a given belt. It is crazy to think a guy who is ranked eighth overall can be next in line for a title shot. Johnson should realistically be better everywhere and get the job done although with the fast paced action of a flyweight fight, we have seen strange things can happen. Regardless, with Johnson as a huge favourite and Cariaso as a huge underdog, we see this fight as unbettable. It may however be worth placing a bet on the fight to last less than 4.5 rounds. The line on that is currently 1.89 (-112) and if you expect Johnson to be incredibly dominant, as we do, the under may be good value. Then again, this is the UFC’s lightest weight class and decisions seem to happen the vast majority of the time. So overall, no bet from us, but we expect Johnson to easily get the job done, quite possibly by third or fourth round stoppage.
The fight we are most pumped about on the main card is likely the lightweight battle between Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez. Alvarez was consistently a top performer in Bellator and it will be incredibly interesting to see how his skills match-up against a top 5 UFC lightweight like Donald Cerrone. Somehow, without ever fighting in the UFC, Alvarez was able to take over the number 14 position in the UFC’s top 15. Our very slight lean would be to Donald Cerrone with a small assumption that Eddie Alvarez is going to perform marginally worse than expected inside the Octagon. We will not however, have a betting tip for this fight, but this is still definitely one you will want to sit back and enjoy.
Yoel Romero vs Tim Kennedy is another fight we’re really excited for. Not just because we’ll have a bet on it, but because Romero tends to end up in pretty exciting battles that require him to find last minute finishes quite often inside the Octagon. Tim Kennedy is 35 years old with an 18-4 overall record in MMA. Since 2010 in fights spanning Strikeforce and the UFC, he is 7-2 with his only losses coming to top middleweights Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza. Yoel Romero is a former Olympic silver medalist, but is now 37 years old. He is 8-1 overall and impressively 4-0 in the UFC. We feel Yoel Romero is very overhyped by the public. We said the same thing before his fight with Derek Brunson when everyone was talking about how great his wrestling was and he gave little resistance to the takedowns by Brunson. He only won the fight because Brunson gassed in the third round. Tim Kennedy has shown he has the ability to take down and grind out pretty much any fighter (Michael Bisping is one of the best at avoiding this and he couldn’t against Kennedy). Romero’s takedown defense currently sits at 29% and the majority of those defenses came against a very tired Derek Brunson (he had 0% takedown defense heading into that match-up). We fully expect Kennedy to take down and grind out Romero. Mark us down for Kennedy by unanimous decision. In terms of a bet, we bet 4 units on Kennedy at 2.30 (+130) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our free betting tips for UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso. Be sure to check our Sellfy page to purchase the best betting tips on the net. Also make sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest updates!
Free Betting Tip
Kennedy over Romero. 4 units at 2.30 (+130) at Pinnacle