We’re just over a week away from UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes and we’re here to give you our free betting tip for the event as well as to remind you that our full betting tips will only be available on our Sellfy page. For just $9.95 (or half that if you choose to share on social media), you will get the best MMA betting tips on the net. In addition, UFC 179 will mark the debut of our machine learning algorithm which we will be using to make the majority of our picks. This new algorithm has approached 75% in the testing we have been running so we’re very excited to debut the picks for you. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Our lone free betting tip for this pretty decent pay-per-view card from Brazil will be on the main event. First off, to recap their first fight, it was honestly a relatively even fight if you don’t consider the last 10 seconds. The first four and a half minutes saw the fighters on their feet exchanging strikes and leg kicks, the advantage was to Aldo though. The next 20 or 30 seconds saw Mendes glued to Aldo’s back, landing knees to the back of Aldo’s thighs and attempting takedowns which failed. It was kind of a fluky TKO finish for Aldo at the end of the round as he landed the knee as he was transitioning out of Mendes’s back control. Sure, Aldo performed better on that night in January, 2012, but the advantage is not as pronounced as many people are saying.
In terms of the current betting odds, the best you can get from a reputable sportsbook on Aldo is 1.43 (-230) and the best you can get for Mendes is 3.10 (+210). In this rematch, our model favours Mendes. Since the original match-up, Mendes has gone 5-0, bringing his overall record to 16-1 and 4 of those 5 wins were TKOs. They likely all would have been by TKO except he had a sinus infection while fighting Nik Lentz which seemed to hurt his cardio. Aldo has defended his belt 3 times, winning all three obviously with just 1 coming by way of TKO and that was due to a fourth round injury against Chan Sung Jung. We expect Mendes to go to his wrestling for this fight while Aldo will try to keep it on the feet. Mendes won’t be completely out of his element on the feet just like Aldo won’t be completely out of his element on the ground, but Aldo’s best chance of winning is on the feet and Mendes’s is on the ground. We think Mendes has improved enough that he will be able to land takedowns and keep Aldo down. If not every time they fight, we think he succeeds well over 33% of the time which would be the approximate break even winning percentage for a bet on Mendes. With all that said, our bet is a 2 unit play on Mendes at 3.10 (+210) at Pinnacle.
Mendes over Aldo. 2 units at 3.10 (+210) at Pinnacle