UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes II Betting Recap

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes II went down last night and while it wasn’t the greatest night of fights by any stretch, a solid main event made up for what was a mediocore undercard. The event marked our first attempt to use picks made by a machine learning algorithm as a tool in choosing where to bet. While we didn’t end up generating a huge profit, our small profit is still a profit and in the end, that’s all we’re trying to do anytime we make bets on an event. By the way, our UFC Fight Night 55/56 paid betting tips are now available on our Sellfy. There are currently no tips available, but if you purchase our picks through Sellfy, you will receive an email with the updates before they are posted anywhere else. By the way, here’s an example of what you get, our UFC 179 full paid betting tips.

In the main event, we had Chad Mendes to defeat Jose Aldo. The bet was 2 units at 3.10 (+210), but by fight time Mendes had fallen to 2.80 (+180). It turned out to be a very even fight. At times, Aldo appeared to be a step ahead of the challenger, but Mendes landed some devastating strikes throughout the fight as well as a couple takedowns. We felt the judges would be justified in giving Mendes rounds 1, 4 and 5, but we weren’t holding our breath going to the scored cards as we had it 48-47 Aldo. The judges unanimously scored it 49-46 for Aldo which was somewhat surprising, but we lost our 2 unit bet. One interesting moment in the fight was when Jose Aldo almost knocked Mendes out with 2 strikes well afer the bell in the first round. At a minimum, we felt a point should have been taken away, but the ref probably would have also been justified in disqualifying Aldo. For some reason the ref chose to do nothing.

In the co-main event, as our first paid betting tip, we had Phil Davis to defeat Glover Teixeira. The bet was 2 unit at 3.58 (+258). The line peaked at close to 4.00 (+300), but had dropped to 2.90 (+190) or so by the time the fight took place. Davis looked better than we had even expected, managing to avoid 90% of Teixeira’s offense while also looking incredibly crisp with his striking. When the fight was on the ground, Davis was almost always in control making it easy for the judges to score the fight for him, 30-27 across the board. We profit 5.16 units.

Our second paid betting tip of the event was Lucas Martins to defeat Darren Elkins. That bet was 2 units at 2.66 (+166). The line was relatively stable throughout the week leading up to the fight. Elkins didn’t make it exciting, but he did do enough to warrant the decision he won. At least half the fight was spent with Elkins pressing Martins against the fence. The rest was spent on the feet where there wasn’t much to choose between the two fighters. We lost our 2 unit bet.

UFC 179 was a success since we made a profit and we’ll look to continue our momentum with 2 events on November 8. You can pre-order our picks on our Sellfy page for that event. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates!

Good Bets

Davis over Teixeira. 2 units at 3.58 (+258). (+5.16 units)

Lost Bets

Mendes over Aldo. 2 units at 3.10 (+210). (-2.00 unit)
Martins over Elkins. 2 units at 2.66 (+166). (-2.00 unit)

Event Record: 1-2
Event Profit: +1.16 units

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s