We’re just a couple days away for UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs St Preux and usually we’d have our free play out earlier than this, but the lines only came out recently at many books so we’re here with the bet and as always it’s better late than never. We just added a paid betting tip to our picks at Sellfy which brings us to 13 total units spread over 6 bets. We’ll be looking to start a new winning streak following the nice little profit we had at UFC 179.
In the main event, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was originally scheduled to take on Jimi Manuwa. We felt like the value was on Shogun since the fight was close to even money, but Manuwa pulled out with just over a week to go until the fight and was replaced by Ovince St Preux. At 31 years of age, St Preux has sort of been in the middle-upper tier of light heavyweights for the last few years. Overall, he sits at 16-6 and has won 4 of 5 since joining the UFC from Strikeforce. If you look down there list of guys St Preux has beaten though, there aren’t really many names that pop off the list. Any time he has faced upper tier competition though, he has gone out there and lost. We expect more of the same against Shogun on Saturday night. Rua is 32 years of age with an overall record of 22-9. He has been fighting in the UFC since 2007 and has only gone 6-7, but it is important to note that he has been fighting the best the UFC has to offer while St Preux has been making his way through the ranks. Shogun probably isn’t more of a favourite because he had let downs in a couple of his recent fights. Firstly, in August, 2013 he looked absolutely awful against Chael Sonnen, losing via submission towards the end of the first round of their fight. Then, in his most recent fight vs Dan Henderson, he seemed to have everything going his way before Henderson landed a punch out of nowhere that rendered Rua unconscious. Between those two fights, he was able to TKO James Te Huna in just over a minute. Even though there is a slight risk that Rua goes out there and shits the bed, we feel there is decent value on him at the line of around 1.50 (-200). Therefore, we added him to a parlay with our selection in the co-main event.
In the co-main event, flyweights Ian McCall and John Lineker will duke it out. At 24 years of age, Lineker has a lot of career fights and sits at 24-7. He is 5-2 in the UFC, but has struggled to make the 125 lbs limit, missing it on 3 of 7 attempts. His opponent, McCall is 30 years old and 13-4-1 overall. McCall is 2-2-1 in the UFC, but that comes with a huge asterisk as the only two losses came to the two guys generally considered #1 an #2 in the UFC flyweight division, Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez (John Dodson definitely makes a case for being #2 as well though). McCall also managed a draw against the champ, Johnson who has looked unstoppable as of late so that is a pretty impressive feat. Lineker tends to always throw with bad intentions which means he gets a lot of knockouts. It also means he exposes himself for faster guys to land punches or for quicker guys to get takedowns. In addition, every punch Lineker throws takes a ton of energy so he tends to tire by the end of the second round. That is exasperbated by the fact that he generally has rough weight cuts. We expect McCall to come in with a game plan that sees him pushing the pace and attempting to beat Lineker to the punch. That should be enough for him to pick up a 30-27 decision across the board. Obviously with Lineker fighting at home in front of the Brazilian crowd, there is always the risk of the judges scoring this one the wrong way. We don’t anticipate the fight being close enough for that to happen which is why we made McCall the second leg of our parlay. We placed a 3 unit parlay bet on Rua/McCall at 2.37 (+137) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs St Preux free betting tip! Remember if you want more you can get our full paid betting tips on our Sellfy page. Remember as well to follow us on Twitter and Facebook to be notified of all our latest updates.
Rua/McCall Parlay. 3 units at 2.37 (+137) at Pinnacle