So UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt is just a few days away and we’re here with a free betting tip. To be honest, this card really isn’t very good for betting. Generally, pay-per-view cards tend to have a lot of well known fighters which generally means there are many more spots where we can be confident in placing bets. This card does not fit that bill at all. An example of this is the first two fights of the main card. Usually the UFC will have a pretty exciting fight to kick off the card and get the fans into it. On Saturday, that is not the case though. Of the four fighters in the first two fights of the main card, only 1 had his last fight in the UFC, and that was a loss and his debut (Chris Heatherly). One of the fighters (Hector Urbina) has gone 1-2 on the REGIONAL circuit in his last 3. I don’t even know why the UFC would sign a guy like that, let alone letting him be on the main card of a pay-per-view. Regardless, we are picking our spots carefully and we currently have at least 3 bets planned (but could be as high as 4 by Saturday depending on the line movement). You can pre-order our full bets at Sellfy which will put you first in line for receiving the picks. We hope to have our full plays out Friday night.
Our free bet for this card will be on the featherweight contest currently occupying the middle slot on the pay-per-view portion of the card between Dennis Bermudez and Ricardo Lamas. The 27 year old Bermudez enters the fight on a 7 fight win streak including an absolute demolition of Clay Guida in his last fight in July of this year. Lamas, the 32 year old former title contender has gone 6-1 over his last 7 with his only loss being to the champ, Jose Aldo. In terms of the betting odds, 5Dimes has Bermudez as the favourite at 1.59 (-170) while Sportsbook.ag pays the best on Lamas at 2.65 (+165).
In our mind, the value in this fight is clearly on Bermudez. We didn’t see him dispatching of Clay Guida with as much ease as he did, but we are now on board. If we look at what top guys each have beaten and how they have beaten them, a bet on Bermudez makes sense. Bermudez was dominant over Clay Guida who is currently the #11 ranked UFC featherweight. He also won a split decision over Max Holloway who has looked great as of late. Lamas’s lone win over a current top 15 featherweight was against Cub Swanson where he was losing the fight, but managed to lock up a choke to win in the second round. Above all else, our model sees Bermudez winning the vast majority of the time. We placed a 3 unit bet on Bermudez at 1.59 (-170) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our free bet for the event! Remember to get our full bets off Sellfy for just $9.95 (or $4.97 if you share on Facebook or Twitter).
Bermudez over Lamas. 3 units at 1.59 (-170) at 5Dimes