UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II is still almost 2 weeks away, but with the main card odds now released, there is one bet we felt compelled to take early and give away for free as we don’t expect the line to last. Our full betting tips won’t be available until next Thursday at the earliest, but you can pre-order them on our Sellfy page to be the first to receive them as they are released. In terms of our recent performance, we had a great month of November going 8-5 for a profit of 11.51 units and an ROI of 42.63%. It was one of our better months in recent memory and got us back on track after losses in both September and October. UFC 181 will be the first event of December and we’ll be looking to cement our place as the top MMA handicappers in the world with a good performance.
In the main event, Johny Hendricks will defend his welterweight title against Robbie Lawler. This will mark his first title defense since defeating Lawler for the title back in March of this year. Hendricks has a pretty solid all around MMA game, mixing his excellent wrestling with incredibly powerful striking and a decent ground game. He has been fighting in the UFC since August, 2009 and has compiled an impressive 11-2 record for the promotion with his only losses coming to Rick Story in 2010 and GSP (in GSP’s retirement bout) in late 2013. Robbie Lawler’s career record improved to 24-10 after defeating Matt Brown in the headliner of the latest UFC on Fox card where the winner would become the number one contender. He also defeated Jake Ellenberger via third round TKO in May which was his return after losing in the title fight to Hendricks. Lawler is primarily known for devastating striking, but has also shown very good defensive wrestling and a decent gas tank in recent performances. Prior to joining the UFC from Strikeforce, Lawler had was having a pretty up and down run, but since then, he has gone 5-1. We should also mention that both guys are known for their violent fighting styles with Lawler earning knockouts in 19 of his 24 fights and Hendricks knocking out 8 of his 16 opponents.
In this fight, while we do expect Hendricks to emerge victorious, with Lawler, there is the everpresent threat of a sudden KO so we don’t really see the value in a Hendricks bet at 1.48 (-210). Lawler at 2.95 (+195) also doesn’t have much value in our opinion. Where we do see value is in the under 4.5 rounds line. At 1.95 (-105) and with the guarantee of a violent fight, we think the under will hit much more often than not. We placed a 2 unit bet on under 4.5 rounds at 1.95 (-105) at 5Dimes. Note that we also bet the under in the initial meeting between the two and that was at worse odds and a lower total so we feel pretty strongly about this bet.
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Under 4.5 rounds – Hendricks/Lawler. 2 units at 1.95 (-105) at 5Dimes