We’re just 2 days away from UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II and we’ve decided to add a second free play for the event! Generally, we only provide 1 free tip, but we felt a second underdog play was in order given the magnitude of this event and that it’s the season of giving! By the way, if you like our tips, our full betting tips are available on our Sellfy profile. In terms of recent results, we had a solid month of November after subpar months of September and October. We are still 7-4 in terms of winning months and we have an ROI of greater than 10% which is pretty good in the MMA game. You can check out our other free betting tip here.
In the middle of the main card, the Brown’s go at it as Brendan “Big Brown” Schaub takes on Travis “Happa” Browne. Schaub enters the fight going 2-3 in his last 5, but by most accounts, he should actually be 3-2 given the bad split decision loss he had to Andrei Arlovski. Browne’s record is very similar as he has gone 3-2 over his last 5. Browne will have a 3 inch height advantage as he stands 6’7″ and will likely have a weight advantage, but was only 8 lbs heavier at 256 the last time he weighed in so that remains to be seen. In terms of the betting odds, Schaub is an underdog at 3.89 (+289) while Browne is the favourite at 1.32 (-310).
In Browne’s last fight against Fabricio Werdum, we stated that we thought he was badly overrated by the betting public and the fight was more of a pick em or even favoured Werdum. That thought process remains pretty much the same for Saturday’s clash. Firstly, we learned a lot in Browne’s fight against Werdum. Firstly, he has very bad cardio, like many heavyweights. He was vastly slower in the second round than the first and things just got worse for him in rounds 3, 4 and 5. When Browne got tired, Werdum (who was considered the weaker striker going into the fight) began to dominate on the feet and eventually took a unanimous decision victory. In addition, Browne’s takedown defense didn’t appear to be all that great and we will be looking for Brendan Schaub to exploit that. Schaub showed dramatically improved wrestling in his win over Lavar Johnson. In this match-up, we definitely think the value is on Schaub as he has better cardio and better wrestling, but if he gets knocked out 10 seconds into the fight, don’t be terribly surprised. We placed a 1 unit bet on Brendan Schaub at 3.89 (+289) at Pinnacle.
Remember, if you want access to our full bets for the event, they’re just $9.95 (or $4.97 if you share on social media) at our Sellfy page. In addition, remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!