The finale of TUF 20 is just a few days away and we’re here with a free betting tip. The fights go down this Friday, December 12 from Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event will be to become the first ever UFC women’s strawweight champion and will feature the winner of Carla Esparza and Jessica Penne taking on the winner of Randa Markos and Rose Namajunas. Obviously, our free tip won’t consider that fight as we don’t even know who’s fighting, let alone have odds on the board. In terms of our recent performance, we had a solid month of November making profit in 2 of 3 events for a return of 42.63%. December started a little weaker with a 2.50 unit loss, but that is basically the price you pay when almost all favourites win and you are making a lot of underdog bets. Our UFC on Fox 13: Dos Santos vs Miocic and TUF 20 Finale paid betting tips will be combined into one package and are currently available for pre-order on our Sellfy page. Pre-ordering means you will get all our tips before anyone else, emailed directly to you!
The first leg of our free parlay for TUF 20 card will be Daron Cruickshank to defeat KJ Noons. The 29 year old Cruickshank is 16-5 overall and has gone 3-1 in his last 4. Following back to back TKO wins to open 2014 over Mike Rio and Erik Koch, Cruickshank was very hyped up by the betting public. He went 1-1 in his other 2 2014 bouts losing to Jorge Masvidal and defeating Anthony Njokuani and the betting public seems to have cooled a bit on him since then. His opponent, KJ Noons is 32 years old and looked to be on his way out as he went 1-5 from October, 2010 to May, 2013. Since then, he defeated George Sotiropolous and Sam Stout (becoming the first to TKO Stout) and the betting public seems very high on him right now. We favour Cruickshank to win this match-up the majority of the time based on our model. We feel the betting public is currently underrating Cruickshank and overrating Noons thus making for a decent betting situation.
The second leg of our free parlay features one of the most hyped up competitors of TUF 20, Felice Herrig to defeat Lisa Ellis. Herrig sports a career record of 9-5 and was on a 4-1 run across XFC, Bellator and Invicta when the UFC came calling. On the show, Herrig defeated Heather Clark via unanimous decision in her opening round bout, but lost to semi-finalist Randa Markos via submission in the quarter finals. At 30 years old, Herrig is likely squarely in her prime years of fighting. Her opponent, Lisa Ellis is 32 years old and has a 15-8 overall record. Heading into the show, Ellis was on a streak of 1-3 across Bellator, Invicta and a regional show. The win in the 1-3 record came on that regional show against an opponent whos record was only 3-2. On The Ultimate Fighter, Ellis lost to semi-finalist Jessica Penne via first round submission. This fight seems like a set up by the UFC to build up Herrig. We definitely see Herrig winning the vast majority of the time, which is why we included her as the second leg in our parlay. We bet 3 units on Cruickshank and Herrig at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our TUF 20 finale free betting tip. We will be back later in the week (once the odds are widely available) with our free betting tip for UFC on Fox 13: Dos Santos vs Miocic. Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all the latest. Also, remember to pre-order our paid betting tips for the weekend only on our Sellfy page!
Cruickshank/Herrig Parlay. 3 units at 1.91 (-109) at 5Dimes