UFC Fight Night 58: Machida vs Dollaway Betting Recap

The night started the way we had hoped, but ended with one unlucky break and a couple guys who didn’t perform for us. The Dos Santos Jr loss to Sarafian was really the loss that caused the night to be profitable and if his finger had stayed in socket, we would likely be looking at a decent profit on the evening. As it was, we lost 0.92 units and went 2-3 on our bets. As we announced on Twitter, our full betting tips for UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier will be absolutely free. We are hoping 2015 starts as strong as 2014 did for us!

Our final bet of the night was a 2 unit free play on Antonio Carlos Jr to defeat Pat Cummins. We got odds of 2.45 (+145), but early on Saturday the odds mysteriously dropped to 2.20 (+120) and the bounced back to 2.50 (+150) or so. Round 1 was all Cummins. He got an early take down and stayed on top for pretty much the full 5 minutes. Rounds 2 and 3 weren’t much different and besides a couple leglock attempts by Carlos Jr, he wasn’t doing much at all. We lose our 2 unit bet.

Our fourth underdog bet of the night was a 2 unit play on the opener of the main card which featured Daniel Sarafian and Antonio Dos Santos Jr. We had Dos Santos Jr at 2.45 (+145). The line at fight time was pretty much exactly where it was when we placed the bet earlier in the week. Dos Santos seemed to be the more effective striker for the first and most of the second. In a very unfortunate turn of events though, he decided to call a timeout for himself when his finger popped out of its socket. The ref made the right call and awarded the fight to Sarafian since obviously you can’t call timeout in MMA. We lose our 2 unit bet.

Our third underdog bet of the night was Renato Carneiro to defeat Tom Niinimaki. The bet was 2 units at 1.99 (-101), but by fight time the line on Carneiro (Moicano) had dropped to 1.80 (-125). It was obvious from the start that Carneiro’s speed and range were going to be a huge issue for Niinimaki. Carneiro controlled the action on the feet landing far more effective strikes all through the first round. The second round was the same with Carneiro eventually getting Niinimaki down and quickly locking up a submission. We profit 1.98 units.

Darren Elkins was our second paid betting tip of the night. We had 2 units on him to beat Hacran Dias at 2.70 (+170). Surprisingly, by fight time the line had climbed to 3.00 (+200). Round 1 and 2 were Dias’s. He looked better on the feet and was on the top whenever the fight went to the ground. Elkins struggled to get the fight to the ground when they were standing with little success. Round 3 was Elkins best as he pushed the action on the feet and spent less than half the round on his back. He almost locked up a guillotine with 30 seconds left, but didn’t have the gas left to finish. We had it 29-28 Dias going to the judges. The judges scored it for Dias and we lose our 2 unit bet.

Our first bet of the night was on TUF Brazil runner up Vitor Miranda to defeat promotional newcomer Jake Collier. The bet was 2 units at 2.55 (+155). Collier took Miranda to the mat off a kick in the middle of the first round and it looked like the round was lost as Collier maintained top position until 30 seconds were left in the round when Miranda managed to get to his feet. Miranda took advantage of the opportunity to strike though as he quickly landed a head kick and finished the fight with follow up punches. We profit 3.10 units.

Thanks to those who purchased our picks for this event! As mentioned on Twitter our full bets for UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier will be free on our website.

Good Bets

Miranda over Collier. 2 unit at 2.55 (+155). (+3.10 units)
Carneiro over Niinimaki. 2 units at 1.99 (-101). (+1.98 units)

Lost Bets

Carlos Jr over Cummins. 2 unit at 2.45 (+145). (-2.00 units)
Dos Santos Jr over Sarafian. 2 unit at 2.45 (+145). (-2.00 units)
Elkins over Dias. 2 units at 2.70 (+170). (-2.00 units)

Event Record: 2-3
Event Profit: -0.92 units

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