UFC Fight Night 59: McGregor vs Siver is just over a week away and we’re here to bring you our early betting tips for the event! Obviously the news that has overshadowed everything from UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier was the fact that Jon Jones had tested positive for cocaine in early December, just a few weeks prior to the big fight. Jones was still able to dominate his fight with Cormier to retain the title, but with Jones checking in to rehab, the light heavyweight picture becomes murky. Anyways, our betting performance was not the best as we were let down by Danny Castillo and Nate Marquardt and ended up losing just over 6 units to kick off 2015. We will be looking to come back strong to bring us back into the green for the first month of 2015. Remember to sign up at our partner, Draft Kings website for a 100% bonus, a free $2 voucher and to support our efforts to bring you free betting tips! In terms of Fight Night 59, we’ll likely bring you a total of 4 free betting tips once again with 2 coming in this post and 2 coming in our pre-fight post on the Thursday or Friday of fight week.
We obviously have to start by breaking down the main event as Irishman Connor McGregor takes on Dennis Siver. McGregor will be making his fifth Octagon appearance and has gone 4-0 so far with 3 of 4 coming by TKO. As an Irishman, Boston is somewhat of a second home so he will have the crowd behind him! McGregor is hyped up like no other fighter both by fans and the betting public. This is evidenced by the fact that his betting line sits at 1.08 (-1200) against the #10 featherweight in the world, Dennis Siver. Amazingly, the line on any other result than a McGregor TKO is currently sitting at 4.75 (+375). Siver definitely loses in the age category as he will be 35 at fight time while McGregor is just 26. Wear and tear also are likely not on the side of Siver as he has 31 career fights and is 22-9. 18 of those 31 fights have been inside the UFC. In his most recent 5 fights, Siver is 3-1-1 and would be 4-1 had he not been busted for hCG following a unanimous decision win over Manny Gamburyan. We are definitely in agreement that the chances of Siver winning this fight are slim. The big question mark though is does Siver win often enough to justify a bet at 8.75 (+775). At this point, we don’t think so although it will be a line we watch throughout fight week and if it gets much crazier, we might be forced to place a small bet on Siver.
To open the Fox Sports 1 portion of the card, Norman Parke and Gleison Tibau will fight in the lightweight division. Tibau is 31 years old and is 30-10 overall. He has been fighting in the Octagon since 2006 (with a one fight absence) and is 15-8 for the promotion. His opponent, Norman Parke is 28 years old and 20-2-1 overall. Inside the Octagon he is 4-0-1. Tibau will be a stiff test for Parke as he is a big step up from the competition Parke has typically faced. We don’t expect Parke to pass the test in this case. The line movement on this fight has been pretty dramatic as Tibau opened around 1.50 (-200) and has since climbed to 1.80 (-125). We’re going to take advantage of this line as we feel the betting public is on the wrong side in this one. We placed a 3 unit bet on Tibau at 1.83 (-121) at Pinnacle.
Our second bet in this post will be an underdog who’s line we expect to worsen over the next week and a half leading up to the fight. Our model favours Cathal Pendred to defeat Sean Spencer in their welterweight encounter. As the underdog, there is good betting value in placing the bet. The 27 year old Pendred will be fighting for the third time in the UFC and so far he’s been perfect at 2-0. He is currently riding a 10 fight unbeaten streak including wins over former UFC fighter Che Mills and current UFC Fighter Nicholas Musoke. His opponent, Spencer is 28 years old and sports an overall record of 12-3. Spencer has not been as successful in the UFC, going 3-2. As we said, we feel Pendred has the better chance of coming away with the victory next Saturday so we placed a 2 unit bet on Pendred at 2.37 (+137) at Sports Interaction.
That’s it for our early betting tips. We’re eyeing 2 other underdogs that we will likely be betting late next week so stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all the latest! Remember to support our partner, Draft Kings as they are the reason we’re able to bring you free picks right now!
Tibau over Parke. 3 units at 1.80 (-125) at Pinnacle
Pendred over Spencer. 2 units at 2.37 (+137) at Sports Interaction