UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson Early Betting Tips

Coming off a successful weekend which included profits across all 3 of WSOF 17, Bellator 132 and UFC Fight Night 59, we’re back with a couple early betting tips for UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson. The event goes down this Saturday from Stockholm, Sweden with the Fight Pass prelims kicking off at 4 pm ET, the televised prelims starting at 5 pm ET and the main card beginning at 8 pm ET. After our 4-2, +5.38 unit weekend, we’ll be looking to erase the 0.74 unit deficit we are currently sitting on for 2015. Remember, if you want us to continue to provide the best free MMA betting tips on the net, sign up at our partner’s site Draft Kings for some fantasy MMA action! In fantasy MMA, you pick 5 fighters while trying to stay under the $50,000 salary cap. At the other fantasy MMA site, staying under the cap tends to be pretty easy, but not a Draft Kings where all favourites cost over $10,000 and strong favourites can cost as much as $13,000.

The co-main event of this event will be a middleweight fight between the ageless Dan Henderson and Gegard Mousasi. Henderson will be returning to the middleweight division for the first time since 2010, but after looking tiny against Daniel Cormier, it is probably where he belongs at this stage in his career. Our model favours Hendo, but at 44 years old, it is kind of hard to place a bet on him when he’s taking on a solid opponent who is just 29. In addition, Henderson’s best shot at victory is going to be a knockout that seemingly comes out of nowhere, but Mousasi has always shown a pretty decent chin which means the likelihood of a sudden KO by Hendo is even less. Our play on Henderson is mostly based on his power and the fact that we think the line on him is paying better than it should. To be profitable long term on a play like this, we only need Hendo to win more than 22% of the time which we think he does. We think it’s realistic to expect Henderson to be able to use his power and wrestling to win 30-35% of the time. Therefore, we placed a 1 unit bet on Henderson at 4.50 (+350) at Bookmaker.

Our second early betting tip is a 3 team parlay. Firstly, Mirsad Bektic will be taking on Paul Redmond in the featherweight division. Redmond takes the fight on 12 days notice and will also be making his promotional debut. After going 2-1 in his last 3 in Cage Warriors, it’s going to be a tall task to try and defeat Mirsad Bektic in his debut. Overall, Redmond is 10-4 and actually started his career 3-3 so it’s impressive that he has even made it to the UFC. Bektic is 8-0 after debuting with a majority decision win over Chas Skelly. Prior to the loss, Skelly was also undefeated at 11-0. We think Bektic takes the victory on Saturday with relative ease which is why we made him the first leg of our parlay.

The second leg of our 3 team parlay is another big favourite as we see the 22-5 Mairbek Taisumov defeating Anthony Christodoulou in his UFC debut. This is another short notice fight as Christodoulou was penciled in on December 30 when Yan Cabral pulled out due to injury. Like the previous leg in Bektic, we expect Taisumov to be the far superior fighter to his debuting opponent. Christodoulou has been fighting a lot on the Greek independent circuit so he is likely in for a huge step up in competition when he faces Taisumov who is 2-1 in the Octagon. For that reason, we made Taisumov the second leg of our parlay.

The final leg of our 3 team parlay features Kenny Robertson. Robertson will be fighting Sultan Aliev in the co-main event of the televised prelims. Robertson is 30 years old and 14-3 overall. In the UFC, he is 3-3, but has won 2 straight over Thiago Perpetuo and Ildemar Alcantara. His 30 year old opponent Sultan Aliev will be making his promotional debut and is 13-1 overall. This leg of the parlay will obviously be the most uncertain, but our model is relatively confident that Robertson should get the job done. At 1.80 (-125) we think there’s decent value in placing the bet. We bet 3 units on Bektic, Taisumov and Robertson at 2.67 (+167) at 5Dimes.

That’s it for our UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson early betting tips. Stay tuned to our Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates. Make sure as well to sign up at our partners, Draft Kings site to make sure you can take advantage of our fantasy preview which will be out in the next couple days!

Bets

Henderson over Mousasi. 1 unit at 4.50 (+350) at Bookmaker
Bektic/Taisumov/Robertson Parlay. 3 units at 2.67 (+167) at 5Dimes

4 thoughts on “UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson Early Betting Tips

  1. Hi, I read on your “about” that Bets are recommended to be 0.5, 1, 1.5 or 2 units – depending on how favoured the fighter is within the model and the money line odds – to minimize risk. A betting unit is equal to 5% of your bankroll. So for a $100 bankroll, a single unit bet would be $5. A 1.5 unit bet $7.50, a 2 unit bet $10 etc. etc.

    Is this still the case? I thought 1 unit was 1% of your bankroll?

    Thanks! Really appreciate the posts :).

    • Hi Jake,

      Thanks for the question. Yeah you’re absolutely right, we use 1 unit as 1-2% of your bankroll. I will have to update the “about” page to reflect that.

      Cheers,

      Austin

  2. Hi Austin, thanks for that I’m new to this just wanted to make sure.

    Once again thanks for the write ups they are very insightful.

  3. Pingback: UFC on FOX 14: Gustafsson vs Johnson Fantasy Preview | Fight Predictor

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