We’re less than a week away from another solid UFC card as UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz goes down next Saturday from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. So far in 2015, the UFC has done a much better job of stacking its pay-per-view events and Saturday will be no exception. Firstly in the main event, GOAT Anderson Silva returns from a devastating leg injury to take on the Stockton Bad Boy Nick Diaz. The co-main features rising welterweight and former TUF winner Kelvin Gastelum taking on perennial contender Tyron Woodley. In addition, we have long time vet Joe Lauzon taking on another rising star in Al Iaquinta. We have a lot of potential underdog bets for the event, but this post will just detail a 3-team parlay as well as the first of our underdog picks. In terms of our recent betting performance, we have gone 8-7 so far in 2015 for +10.21 units and a 30.94% ROI. You can get the full history of our bets in our betting track record. Remember, this will be our last event of all free betting tips unless we get some more signups at our partner’s site, Draft Kings. After that, we will likely sell our picks through our CapperTek.com, but we will definitely look at giving some extra picks to those who have already signed up and deposited at Draft Kings.
The first leg of our 3 team parlay will be Anderson Silva. Imagine for a second that this fight was taking place in the summer of 2013. It wouldn’t be difficult to imagine that Silva would be a 1.13 (-800) favourite to beat Nick Diaz. Sure, Silva is now a couple years older and coming off two straight losses to the champ, Chris Weidman as well as a badly broken leg, but we still don’t think the line on him should pay as much as it currently does. The only fighters we have ever seen be a threat to the Spider are extremely gifted wrestlers. Nick Diaz is not one of those and this fight will remain on the feet. Diaz’s boxing will not be enough to defeat the most devastating striker of all time and he will go down like so many before him. That’s why Silva is the first leg of our 3 team parlay.
The second leg of our 3 team parlay is Thales Leites to defeat Tim Boetsch. If we’re being realistic Boetsch has only won one fight in the last 2 years. The fight that went down as a win against CB Dolloway was the worst decision in 2013 for sure and a contender for worst of all time. Boetsch’s TKO win over Brad Tavares was really a fluke as he was dominated up to the point at which he landed the strike to turn the table in the middle of the second round. Leites has had a renewed focus on his striking and was even able to knock out Francis Carmont in his last outing. Leites is most likely going to be better than Tim Boetsch on the feet and he will definitely be better than Boetsch on the ground. We see very few ways in which Boetsch wins this fight. For that reason, Leites is the second leg of our 3 team parlay.
The final leg in our 3 team parlay will be Ian McCall to defeat John Lineker. McCall was supposed to be a parlay leg when these two were originally supposed to meet in November before McCall had to pull out due to a blood infection. The basics are that McCall will only lose to the best of the best in Joseph Benavidez and Demtrious Johnson (even then Johnson only won their second fight via decision after the two fought to a draw in their first contest). Lineker is well known for his power and probably has the most knockouts in UFC flyweight history with 4 of his 5 UFC wins coming by KO or TKO. The problem with Lineker is that he puts everything into every strike he throws which exposes him to takedown attempts vs good wrestlers and also means he tires out more quickly than he otherwise would. Add to that the fact that making 125 lbs is a struggle and you have a recipe for bad cardio. We expect McCall to use his volume both in takedowns and striking to tire out Lineker and cruise to a decision win. We placed a 3 unit bet on Silva/Leites/McCall at 2.29 (+129) at 5Dimes.
Our other pick for this post will be on the opener of the main card as welterweights Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves are set to collide. Alves is a former title contender and is now 31 years old and has had a back and forth run since losing to Georges St Pierre for the title in 2009. Since the title fight loss, Alves is 3-3 which brings him to an overall record of 20-9. He has not been particularly active as of late fighting just once in April, 2014 since losing to Martin Kampmann in March, 2012. Jordan Mein is 25 years old and is one of the most promising up and comers in the welterweight division. Overall, he is already 29-9 and has gone 3-1 in the UFC. Prior to fighting in the UFC, he was also 2-1 in Strikeforce with his only loss coming to Tyron Woodley by split decision. In this fight, we give the edge to Mein. He is the younger, hungrier, more active fighter of the two and also possesses a height and reach advantage. Our model sees Mein as the most likely winner and we wanted to get this bet out as we feel the betting public is more likely to be placing money on Mein than Alves which will drive this line down. We placed a 2 unit bet on Jordan Mein at 1.91 (-110) at BetOnline.
That’s it for our early betting tips. We will be back this week with our Draft Kings fantasy preview and our full betting tips. UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz should be a pretty awesome pay-per-view event that you won’t want to miss!