We’re just a day away from UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz and it’s time for us to release our full betting tips for the solid pay per view card which will be broadcast live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This will be our final free event before we begin selling our betting tips via our CapperTek profile. You can get an additional 30 days of free betting tips just by signing up and depositing at Draft Kings and following the steps listed here. In terms of UFC 183, we’ve got you covered for both fantasy and betting as we released our fantasy preview and early betting tips earlier this week. How have our bets been doing recently? Check out our betting track record for all the details, but in general, it’s been a pretty awesome start to the year with profit in 3 of 4 events so far. In this post, we’ll be adding 4 betting tips, all underdogs or pick ’ems.
First off, in the welterweight co-main event, Kelvin Gastelum and Tyron Woodley will collide. Obviously, this fight is huge for both men as the winner will likely be ranked in the top 5 of the welterweight division and will be 1 big win away from a title shot. The line has been very close in this fight all week with Gastelum being favoured early on, but bettors flipped the line and it now slightly favours Woodley (or is dead even depending on your book). Our model favours Woodley and it’s not too hard to make the case for betting on him. Woodley is 14-3 overall and 4-2 in the UFC with his only losses coming to Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields. He is 32 years old and is a former NCAA division 1 wrestler. His opponent, Kelvin Gastelum is a recent TUF winner and is just 23 years old. Gastelum’s overall record sits at 10-0, but while Woodley has beaten guys like Dong Hyun Kim, Carlos Condit and Josh Koscheck, Gastlum’s biggest wins come over Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger. While Story and Ellenberger are both good fighters, they aren’t at the level of guys like Condit and Koscheck. In this fight, we think Woodley will be a big step up for Gastelum and we don’t think he is quite ready to fight at that level. Woodley is likely the better wrestler and should also possess a speed and power advantage on the feet. For these reasons, we placed a 2 unit bet on Woodley at 1.90 (-110) at BetOnline.
Next up, and we probably won’t have a lot of cappers agree with us on this one, we see Joe Lauzon having a good chance of knocking off Al Iaquinta. Lauzon is 30 years old and has been fighting for the UFC since 2006. His overall record sits at 24-9 and he is currently on a 2 fight win streak. Iaquinta is 10-3-1 overall and at 27 years old has been fighting in the UFC since 2012. He has sometimes shown a very bad fight IQ, with the big example being his submission loss to Mitch Clarke in a fight he was winning in May, 2014. Assuming he is unable to knock Lauzon out quick, we think there’s a great chance Lauzon can capitalize on an Iaquinta mistake to lock up a submission. At 2.70 (+170), we think there’s big value in betting on Lauzon, the underdog in this situation. We placed a 2 unit bet on Joe Lauzon at 2.70 (+170) at 5Dimes.
For our next bet, we move to the main event of the televise prelims as Miesha Tate and Sara McMann will fight it out. We think the striking and overall ability of Sara McMann is being overvalued in this spot against Miesha. Tate is likely the second best fighter McMann has ever faced so to bet McMann as a favourite in this situation would be a mistake in our opinion. Overall, Tate is 15-5, but her only 3 losses since 2009 were to Rousey x2 and upcoming challenger Cat Zingano. Even in the Zingano fight, Tate was likely winning going into the third round before Zingano was able to turn it around and get the TKO. McMann’s overall record is 8-1, with the lone loss coming to Rousey. She is a former freestyle wrestling silver medalist at the Olympics, but Tate has pretty decent MMA wrestling so we don’t really expect her to be absolutely dominated in the wrestling or anything like that. In this spot with Tate as the underdog, we think that’s where the value lies. We placed a 2 unit bet on Tate at 2.95 (+195) at Sportsbook.ag.
For our final bet on the night, we have Tom Watson to defeat Rafael Natal. This one is pretty simple to break down as Tom Watson has big time power on the feet and Natal has a bad chin. At some point in this fight, Watson likely finds a home for a strike that will render Natal unconscious. We placed a 2 unit bet on Watson at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag.
That’s it for our betting tips for UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz. Reminder that this will be our last free event for a while and you will be able to purchase our picks via our CapperTek profile.
Silva/Leites/McCall Parlay. 3 units at 2.29 (+129) at 5Dimes
Woodley over Gastelum. 2 units at 1.90 (-110) at BetOnline
Lauzon over Iaquinta. 2 units at 2.70 (+170) at 5Dimes
Mein over Alves. 2 units at 1.91 (-110) at BetOnline
Tate over McMann. 2 units at 2.95 (+195) at Sportsbook.ag
Watson over Natal. 2 units at 2.45 (+145) at Sportsbook.ag