UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz Betting Recap

It was a close, but no cigar type of night last night at UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz as we come away with a 2-4 performance for a loss of just over 3 units. If you dig into a couple fights that caused us to lose, specifically Mein vs Alves and McCall vs Lineker, you would see that our guy was winning the first round in each of those fights, only to give it up in the remainder of the fight. Honestly though, if we can keep our losing nights to under 5 units and our winning nights to over 10 units (like UFC on FOX 14), we’ll be well ahead of the game by the end of this year! Remember, with UFC Fight Night 60: Thatch vs Thompson, we’ll begin charging for our betting tips. You can get them free for 30 days by following the steps listed here. The picks will be available via our CapperTek profile.

Our sixth and final bet of the night was Tyron Woodley to defeat an overweight Kelvin Gastelum. Round 1 saw Woodley land more damaging strikes, but Gastelum was pushing the action. Round 2 was more one sided in favour of Woodley with him landing the more damaging strikes and controlling the action. Round 3 was basically a toss up. We had it 29-28 Woodley going to the judges. 2 of 3 judges also scored it in favour of Woodley and we profit 1.80 units.

Our fifth bet of the night was another underdog bet as we had long time vet Joe Lauzon to defeat up and comer Al Iaquinta. The bet was 2 units at 2.70 (+170). Round 1 started pretty well for Lauzon, but Iaquinta finished stronger and likely took it. Iaquinta started to land in round 2, eventually taking Lazuno out and costing us 2 units.

Our fourth bet of the night was a 2 unit play on Jordan Mein to defeat Thiago Alves in the pay per view opener. The bet was 2 units at 1.91 (-110). The line dropped slightly on Mein leading up to the fight, but was relatively stable. Mein was absoutely all over Alves in the first. Unfortunately, things turned around with an Alves body kick in the second. Mein was unable to continue and succumbed to rapid fire strikes. We lost our 2 unit bet.

Our third bet of the night was a 2 unit play on Miesha Tate to defeat Sara McMann. We got odds of 2.95 (+195), but the line had dropped quite a bit to 2.65 (+165) at fight time. Round 1 was all McMann, she landed an overhand right early and got on top and stayed there for pretty much the whole round. In round 2, it was basically the same, except Tate turned it around late, landing several big strikes and getting on top to end the round. Round 3 saw Tate on top for the entirety. We had it 29-28 Tate heading to the judges. The judges gave it to Tate via majority decision. We profit 3.90 units.

The second fight that we had money on was Ian McCall vs John Lineker. Lineker missed weight, weighing in 5 lbs over the 125 lbs flyweight limit. McCall was the first leg of our 3 team parlay that also featured Anderson Silva and Thales Leites. The line on McCall was pretty steady throughout fight week, only dropping slightly when Lineker missed weight. McCall was the more dynamic striker early and it didn’t take long for him to take Lineker down. He spent almost the entire round in top position and besides a couple weak leg lock attempts, Lineker didn’t really threaten. Lineker turned it around in round 2 as he landed far more on the feet and seemed to wobble McCall several times. The third was pretty much the same as the second with Lineker landing the far more damaging strikes and McCall unable to land any more takedowns. We had it 29-28 Lineker after 3. All 3 judges agree and we lose our 3 unit bet.

Our first bet of the night was on the opener of the televised prelims where we had Tom Watson to defeat Rafael Natal. The bet was 2 units at 2.45 (+145), but the odds fell considerably leading up to the fight as the best you could get on Watson at fight time was around 2.25 (+125). Round 1 was definitely Natal’s as the early striking favoured him and he got a few takedowns towards the end of the round. Watson struggled to avoid takedowns and Natal did a great job of staying out of Watson’s range. We had it 30-27 Natal in a pretty easy decision. The judges agreed, awarding the fight to Natal in unanimous fashion. We lose our 2 unit bet.

So it wasn’t our best night ever, but the loss wasn’t overly bad and we still come away with a nice profit on the month of January. It’s a decent start to the year and we’ll look to keep it going in the remainder of the year! Remember starting next event, our full betting tips will only be available via our CapperTek profile.

Good Bets

Woodley over Gastelum. 2 units at 1.90 (-110). (+1.80 units)
Tate over McMann. 2 units at 2.95 (+195). (+3.90 units)

Lost Bets

Silva/Leites/McCall Parlay. 3 units at 2.29 (+129). (-3.00 units)
Lauzon over Iaquinta. 2 units at 2.70 (+170). (-2.00 units)
Mein over Alves. 2 units at 1.91 (-110). (-2.00 units)
Watson over Natal. 2 units at 2.45 (+145). (-2.00 units)

Event Record: 2-4
Event Profit: -3.30 units

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s