UFC 184 goes down this Saturday night from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California and features Ronda Rousey defending her women’s bantamweight title against Cat Zingano. The co-main event features Holly Holm making her UFC debut against Raquel Pennington. Right away, we can rule out all four of these women for bets based on the crazy lines we are currently seeing so don’t expect to see any main or co-main events in either our free or paid betting tips. Speaking of paid betting tips, you can get them on our CapperTek profile where you can also see our track record. So far in 2015, we have brought our followers 13.27 units for an ROI of 20.11%. This puts us right up there near the top of the leaderboard and for just $9.95 for 7 days of access, you really can’t go wrong. We also offer 30 days of free betting tips by following our steps here.
Our free betting tip as usual will be a parlay of a couple fighters we are pretty confident in. First up, we have Tony Ferguson to defeat Gleison Tibau. Tibau is 33-10 overall and one of the stockier 155 lbers at just 5’9″. He comes into this fight on short notice having beaten Norman Parke on January 18 at the McGregor vs Siver fight night. Tony Ferguson is 17-3 and actually a guy we have faded a couple times in the past. We for sure bet against him when he faced Katsunori Kikuno and Abel Trujillo and may have also bet against him when he faced Danny Castillo. This time we’ll be on the side of El Cucuy as our model sees him as the winner the majority of the time on Saturday night. We definitely think Ferguson’s striking will be better than Tibau’s. In addition, Ferguson should be able to avoid Tibau’s takedown attempts and stalling grappling. By keeping the fight at his range, Ferguson should be able to beat up Tibau and may even be able to get a late stoppage as Tibau tires. We made Ferguson the first leg of our free betting tip parlay.
There are several possibilities for other legs of this parlay, but most have some kind of issue. Firstly, there’s Mark Munoz. He’s 37 years old though and honestly hasn’t looked great in his recent fights. His opponent Roan Carneiro isn’t much younger at 36 years old, but he will be making his UFC return (after being cut from the promotion back in 2008) and will likely be the hungrier of the two. With Munoz paying less than 1.33 (-300) on most books, we just don’t feel the value is there. We also considered Jake Ellenberger, but he’s lost 3 straight and will be fighting a savvy vet in Josh Koscheck. Koscheck has also lost 3 straight and is now 37 years old. Don’t get us wrong, we expect Ellenberger to get the win. We just think there’s better value than better worse than 1.50 (-200) on a guy who’s lost 3 straight and sometimes goes into a defensive shell. Another possibility was Derrick Lewis. He should absolutely destroy Ruan Potts, but we’ve seen before that betting big favourites in low level heavyweight action leads to getting burned. (See Nikita Krylov vs Walt Harris for a good example of this)
What we settled on for the second leg of our parlay is a very early fight on the card as James Krause fights Valmir Lazaro in the lightweight division. Overall, Krause is 21-6 and has gone 2-2 so far under the UFC banner. He is 28 years old and has fought in Titan FC, Bellator, WSOF and RFA prior to fighting for the UFC. His opponent Valmir Lazaro is 29 years old and 12-3 overall. Lazaro lost his UFC debut last August and will be looking to pick up his first UFC win on Saturday. As is typical of Brazilian prospects, Lazaro has lots of TKO wins over absolute cans on the Brazilian regional circuit. If you haven’t figured it out already with this being a parlay, we’ll be adding the favourite, Krause to make a 2 teamer. We feel Krause will have the advantage in most places where this fight will take place so even with him currently sitting at 1.54 (-185), we think there’s decent value.
That’s it for our free betting tip parlay. We’ll be back with hopefully at least 1 Bellator 134 betting tip, line dependent of course. Remember you can get 30 days of our betting tips just by following our instructions. Also remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all the latest!
Ferguson/Krause Parlay. 3 units at 2.36 (+136) at 5Dimes