This won’t be our longest post ever, but there is an underdog bet that we think holds a lot of value at Titan FC 33: Green vs Holobaugh. It was one that we thought held value prior to the weigh ins, but after seeing the weight of the competitors, we think it holds more value. By the way, we’ll have a full slate of UFC bets for UFC Fight Night 62: Maia vs LaFlare and they’ll be available exclusively to our CapperTek subscribers. For just $9.95 you can get all of the best MMA bets for a full week.
In the heavyweight division, former UFC fighters Chase Gormley and Jon Madsen will do battle. We’ve found before that odds tend to heavily favour the guy with less career losses and this is certainly the case in this fight. The 9-1 Madsen currently sits at 1.38 (-265) while the 11-4 Gormley is at 3.41 (+241). In terms of their UFC runs, Madsen obviously was the more successful of the two going 4-1, but never beating anyone who had any UFC staying power. Gormley went 0-2, but both his losses were to guys who are still in the UFC today in Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve. We’ll never know how he would have fared against the Karlos Vemola’s and Mostapha Al-Turk’s of the world. Madsen lost his last UFC fight to Mike Russow and was absent from the sport for 3 years. Since returning for Tita FC, Madsen’s only win came against the now 6-7 Matt Foster. Gormley has been more active, winning 3 fights in 2014 against a debuting professional (stupid, right?), the 36-17 Tony Lopez and the now 6-1 Dale Sopi. Based on these facts alone it is becoming harder to see why Gormley is such a big underdog. Then we look at the weigh ins where this tweet says Madsen weighed in at just 222 while Gormley weighed in over 40 lbs heavier at 264. Madsen consistenly weighed in in the 250s throughout his UFC run so this is concerning. Assuming Gormley gains a little more over night, he should be in complete control of the grappling. The two main risks of betting Gormley are the fact that his cardio will probably be worse (although with Madsen’s weight dropping, he might not be training as hard as usual) so he may need a stoppage and the fact that Madsen should have a speed advantage which he could potentially use to land a KO punch. Regardless, we think this is a fight where there is no choice, but to bet the dog so we placed a 1.50 unit bet on Chase Gormley at 3.35 (+235) at 5Dimes.
That’s it for our Titan FC 33: Green vs Holobaugh bets. Be sure to get our full betting tips from Cappertek and enjoy a weekend of MMA action!
Gormley over Madsen. 1.50 units at 3.35 (+235) at 5Dimes