Last night UFC Fight Night 62: Maia vs LaFlare went down from Rio De Janeiro, Brazil and it was an interesting card overall with half the fights finishing via submission (although one very questionably as we’ll go into below) and 9 of 12 fights being finished inside the distance. Our bets ended up doing ok although one referee decision led to us making a smaller profit than we otherwise would have. The net result was 3-3 for +1.98 units. If you add in our big underdog play on Chase Gormley, it’s an over 5.50 unit profit weekend where we go 4-3. We have been on a tear since 2015 started and we attribute a lot of that to picking our spots more carefully for bets. For example, as you can see in our track record, we only had a total of 5 bets over UFC 184 and UFC 185 combined where last year we’d likely have at least 10-12 bets. When a card like Fight Night 62 comes along though, where we see lots of value, we’ll still go for it and that’s evidenced by our 6 bets last night. By the way, if you’re interested in getting our betting tips, you can get 7 days for just $9.95 or 30 days for just $24.95 and you can get them from our CapperTek profile.
Our sixth and final bet of the night was on Demian Maia to win his main event contest with Ryan LaFlare. Our bet was 2 units at 2.25 (+125), but by fight time the line on Maia had fallen to where he was even favoured at 1.90 (-110) on some sports books. Round 1 was all Maia as he spent almost the entire round in top control and a bunch of time in mount. More time was spent on the feet in round 2, but the second half of the round was the same as the first as Maia got the takedown and stayed in top position for the remainder of the round. Round 3 and 4 were more of the same as round 1. Maia looked absolutely dominant and spent 90% of the time on top. Maia looked completely spent in the fifth round and LaFlare was able to take advantage, landing a ton of strikes. Maia was dropping to his back and getting up slowly when LaFlare asked for standups. At the very end of the fight, John McCarthy decided to take a point for Maia refusing to fight, but we felt it was still clear 48-46 for Maia heading to the judges. All 3 judges scored it correctly and we profit 2.50 units.
Our fifth bet of the night was a 2 unit play on Leonardo Santos to defeat Tony Martin. This fight has some crazy line movement as our bet was at 2.25 (+125), but it had opened at around 1.50 (-200) and it closed around 2.50 (+150). Round 1 was pretty even and mostly spent on the feet. In round 2, Santos managed to get it to the ground. On the ground Martin gave up his back and Santos eventually locked up a rear naked choke. We profit 2.50 units.
Our fourth bet of the night was our free betting tip where we had Alex Oliveira and Gilbert Burns to fight for less than 1.5 rounds. It was a 1.5 unit play at 2.15 (+115). Gilbert Burns came out and looked way worse than he ever has in the past. In fact, Oliveira was the aggressor and landed more strikes over the first two rounds. The third round was completely different as Burns got the takedown, the mount and went for sub after sub. Eventually he locked up and arm bar, but it was too late for our bet. We lose our 1.5 unit bet.
Our third bet of the night was Katsunori Kikuno to defeat Kevin Souza. Our bet was 2 units at 3.10 (+210) and the line was as high as 3.25 (+225) by fight time. It seemed like Kikuno didn’t land a single strike as he was knocked clean out by Souza early in the first. What started out as a good night was going south quick. We lose our 2 unit bet.
Our second bet of the night was on an underdog as we had 2 units on Drew Dober to defeat Leandro Silva at 2.40 (+140). This line was relatively stable heading into the fight and closed around where we got it. Round 1 was close, but Dober was far more active. We had it 10-9 Dober after 1. In round 2 we witnessed one of the worst referee decisions in the history of MMA. Silva had Dober in a guillotine, but Dober was on the other side and clearly still completely aware. When he posted on the mat to get out of the choke, the ref decided he was out and awarded an incredily controversial submission win to Silva. It was literally the worst stoppage we have ever seen. We lose our 2 unit bet.
Our first bet of the night was a 1.5 unit play on Freddy Serrano and Bentley Syler to fight for less than 2.5 rounds. The line was pretty stable from open to close and we got it at 2.65 (+165). The first two rounds weren’t particularly exciting and our bet on the under looked like it might be in doubt heading to the third. Things turned around early in the third though as Serrano landed a knockout punch 1:34 into the third. We profit 2.48 units.
Overall, it was a decently good night that could have been much better without one horrible referee call. Anyway, as always our full bets are available on our CapperTek profile. We’ll begin releasing UFC Fight Night 63: Mendes vs Lamas betting tips early next week!
Maia over LaFlare. 2 units at 2.25 (+125). (+2.50 units)
Santos over Martin. 2 units at 2.25 (+125). (+2.50 units)
Under 2.5 rounds – Serrano/Syler. 1.50 units at 2.65 (+165). (+2.48 units)
Under 1.5 rounds – Oliveira/Burns. 1.50 units at 2.15 (+115). (-1.50 units)
Dober over Silva. 2 units at 2.40 (+140). (-2.00 units)
Kikuno over Souza. 2 units at 3.10 (+210). (-2.00 units)
Event Record: 3-3
Event Profit: +1.98 units