We’re about a week and a half away from UFC Fight Night 63: Mendes vs Lamas which will go down on Saturday, April 4 from the Patriot Centre in Fairfax, Virginia. This post will detail our free betting tip for the event, but you’ll have to subscribe to our CapperTek Page to see all our bets for the event. At $9.95 for a week of access or $24.95 for 30 days of access, signing up really makes a lot of sense. We have started 2015 with 3 straight winning months and it’s not like we’re returning pennies. Our current ROI of 22.69% dwarfs the 6.81% we returned in 2014 and it really feels like we’ve found our groove with our bets. You can get the full details of all our bets officially tracked at CapperTek or tracked by us on our track record. Not sure you want to sign up yet? You can get all our betting tips for 30 days just by signing up and depositing $5 at Draft Kings and following these steps. That’s enough about us let’s get into the bet!
In the main event, Chad Mendes takes on Ricardo Lamas. Both featherweights fought division champ, Jose Aldo to a unanimous decision loss in 2014. Lamas had his shot in February and has since won 2 straight while Mendes fought Aldo in his most recent fight in October. Overall, Lamas is 15-3 and 10-3 while fighting for the UFC and WEC. He is 32 years old which is starting to get relatively old for a featherweight as we detailed a while ago in a post where we looked at when fighters are at their best in different weight classes. Mendes is only slightly younger at 29 years old and his record has a similarly small number of losses at 16-2 and 11-2 across the UFC and WEC. Mendes’s only losses actually come to Jose Aldo while Lamas was also TKO’d by Danny Castillo in 2009 and Iuri Alcantara in 2010. In terms of the betting lines, Mendes is deservedly a pretty big favourite at 1.26 (-387) while Lamas is the dog at 4.35 (+335). Our model has Mendes as a very confident pick and it’s easy to see why. He almost certainly has the best wrestling in the division back by being a former NCAA division I wrestler. He has also spent the time to work on his striking and is now up there as one of the most powerful punchers in the featherweight division. This is evidenced by 4 of his last 5 wins coming by TKO or KO in a division not known for producing a ton of knockouts. Lamas also has pretty decent striking and wrestling, but we think Mendes is just better enough that he gets his hand raised a lot of the time. For this reason, we made Mendes the first leg of our 2 team free betting tip parlay at 1.26 (-387).
The second leg of our 2 team parlay is Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier to defeat Carlos Diego Ferreira. Poirier is 26 years old and should just be entering his prime. His overall record sits at 16-4 with a 9-4 record across the UFC and WEC. His only losses have come to the very top tier guys where we don’t place Ferreira. Ferreira is 11-1 with a 2-1 mark inside the Octagon. His only loss came to the ever improving Beneil Dariush in his latest outing. One thing to keep in mind about this fight is that Poirier will be moving up from the featherweight division after losing his last outing via TKO to Conor McGregor. We expect the #6 ranked UFC featherweight, Poirier, will have a successful debut in the UFC’s lightweight division. Ferreira has yet to face a top 15 guy in the UFC and we’ve seen time and time again guys fail badly when making that step up. Also not that the line on Poirier is probably paying way more than it should given that he is coming back off his first career TKO loss. Make Poirier the second leg of the parlay. The bet is 3 units at 1.98 (-102) on Mendes and Poirier at Pinnacle.
Mendes/Poirier Parlay. 3 units at 1.98 (-102) at Pinnacle