UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum goes down this weekend from Mexico and we’ll be looking to continue our very strong June so far where we’re up almost 8 units for an ROI of close to 50%. This article will focus on a parlay we have for the event, but we also plan to add 2 additional bets which will only be available via our CapperTek profile. For just $9.95 you can get our bets for this event, or for $14.95 you can get this weekend’s pay-per-view as well as the following fight night from Berlin, Germany. If you purchase a 30 day package on Saturday for $24.95, you will get the next 5 UFC events! That’s an average of $5 for each event which should pay dividends even for those with the smallest unit sizes. Anyway, while we aren’t betting on the main event at this event, we will have a breakdown of it to kick off this post!
Saturday’s main event will be a championship unification bout as current heavyweight champ, Cain Velasquez takes on interim champion Fabricio Werdum. Our fingers are crossed that nothing happens to put this bout in jeopardy during the week as Velasquez has been far from reliable over the last couple years in terms of injuries. Speaking of which, Velasquez is 13-1 overall with 11 of those wins coming in the Octagon. He is 32 years old, but his last fight came almost two years ago in October, 2013. The interim champ has been more active, fighting twice since Velasquez last fought. Werdum’s last win was at the UFC’s first trip to Mexico in November, 2014 where he TKO’d Mark Hunt in the second round of their bout. Werdum is 37 years old and 19-5-1 overall. In our opinion, Werdum at 5.29 (+429) could be a live dog. Firstly, Velasquez is coming off a serious knee injury. Sure, if he’s 100% again, he probably beats Werdum relatively easily. How can you bet Velasquez when he is as big a favourite as he is when he is coming off a big injury? Secondly, Werdum has always been known for having great jiu jitsu, but as of late it seems he has made dramatic improvements in his striking as well. This is heavyweight fighting and anyone can go down from one good strike. We’re not going to say 50% of the time Werdum will land that strike, but it definitely is a possibility. So overall, definitely don’t parlay the shit out of Cain like tons of people are likely to do leading up to the fight. The right play here is probably to wait until the day of the fight and see what kind of price you can get on Werdum. We’d recommend a quarter of half unit on Werdum should the line get as high as 6.50 (+550).
The first leg of our two team parlay will be on the main card opener as we have Tecia Torres to defeat Angela Hill. Torres is 5-0 overall in her pro career, but suffered 2 losses on TUF 20 and won just 1 fight. She is 25 years old and 5’1″. Her opponent Angela Hill is 2-0 overall. She lost her lone fight on TUF 20. She is 27 years old and 5’3″. Both women also won their Octagon debuts on the TUF finale. Our angle on this mostly comes down to strength of schedule and who the women have beat. Hill beat Emily Kagan and Stephanie Skinner and Torres will be a huge step up in competition for her. Torres already holds wins over some of the best in the division in Paige VanZant, Felice Herrig and Rose Namajunas. Fighting Hill will actually be a slight step down in competition. Normally, we wouldn’t bet the favourite in a women’s bantamweight fight, but we think Torres holds some pretty good value at 1.36 (-280).
The second leg of our two team parlay is actually fighting in the first fight on the card as we have Albert Tumenov to defeat Andrew Todhunter. Todhunter is 7-0 with all 7 wins coming by submission, but that likely isn’t too meaningful as judging by his opponents, it seems to be mostly regional fight stat padding. He will be making his UFC debut on Saturday and will also be making his debut at welterweight on 8 days notice having previously fought only at middleweight (source). In addition, he is fighting a UFC vet in Albert Tumenov who, at just 23 years old, is already 3-1 inside the Octagon. Crazier things have happened, but we would be astounded if Todhunter can somehow come away with the victory which is why we made Tumenov the second leg of our two team parlay. Tumenov currently sits at 1.25 (-400) at Bookmaker.
That’s it for our free betting tips for UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum. Be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates. If you want our full betting tips for Saturday’s pay-per-view, you can purchase them on our CapperTek profile.
Torres over Hill and Tumenov over Todhunter Parlayed. 3 units at 1.70 (-142) at Bookmaker