EDIT: Aldo has pulled out due to his rib injury and Chad Mendes will be stepping in to face Conor McGregor as a replactement. We will add our bet for this new matchup at the bottom
It’s been hyped up for ages and we’re now just over 2 weeks away from one of the biggest MMA fights of all time. UFC 189: Aldo vs McGregor which already had a 10 part embedded series from a world tour has become even more hyped after earlier this week, the champ’s camp claimed he had suffered a rib injury. As it turns out though, the fight will go on as the injury wasn’t as serious as initially thought. As always, we’ll have you covered with a full slate of bets for the card via our CapperTek page. We’ll be looking to have as good a month in July as we did in June where we continued to prove we are among the very best MMA handicappers out there and we come at an affordable price. If you tailed all our bets so far in 2015 (prior to UFC Fight Night 70 which goes down this weekend), you’d only need to bet $5.40 per unit to break even after covering the entirety of your membership fees assuming you buy 30 days at a time! Of the 6 months that have past so far in 2015, only 2 saw us lose money overall and neither of those losses was particularly big.
As pretty much everyone in the world knows by now, earlier this week news broke of Jose Aldo suffering a rib injury in training. Had he broken a rib, he likely would have been out until October. Given that it was just a bone bruise, Aldo will defend his title as planned on July 11th against Conor McGregor. The injury did wreak havoc on the betting line though as Aldo had been as low as a 1.50 (-200) favourite. Post-injury report he has become an underdog and is as high as 2.17 (+117) at Pinnacle currently. Our model favours Aldo in this fight and our gut instinct is on board with Aldo too. Firstly, McGregor is one of the most hyped up fighters the UFC has ever had. The public loves him to the point that he was even more than a 1.20 (-500) favourite against Dennis Siver. To be fair, he is 5-0 in the UFC so far with 4 of his 5 wins coming by way of TKO, but there’s a huge gap between defeating top 15 fighters Dustin Poirier, Max Hollaway and Dennis Siver and fighting the champion who has successfully defended his title 9 times in a row against the best fighters the UFC has to offer. Aldo has only lost once in his career and at 28 years old, he should have at least a couple years before he starts to slow down. His one career loss came outside of the Zuffa organization and he is currently riding a 17 fight win streak with many of his wins coming by way of TKO. We don’t expect this fight to go to the ground since the takedown defense of both guys is probably better than either of their takedowns. On the feet, we think Aldo will have the speed advantage and at a minimum, he will do enough to win the fight by decision. It wouldn’t be surprising however, to see Aldo walking away a TKO victor. In our opinion, the rib injury will be a non-factor and was mostly just an excuse for the UFC to bring this fight back to the top of people’s radars. We favour Aldo and since he’s the slight underdog, a bet on him makes sense. We bet 4 units on Jose Aldo at 2.17 (+117) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our UFC 189: Aldo vs McGregor free betting tip. We may release another free bet depending who our model favours leading up to the fight. Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates!
Aldo over McGregor. 4 units at 2.17 (+117) at Pinnacle
McGregor vs Mendes
Unfortunately, we pulled the trigger on this one a little early as we got 4 units on Mendes at 1.87 (-115) and the line has since jumped considerably on Mendes, up to 2.30 (+130). The public support of Mendes is clearly outweighing what we assume is sharp support on Mendes, which is somewhat surprising given the unproven Irishman. The bet was released on Cappertek before we knew Aldo was out. The points from above remain, in that this will be the toughest opponent McGregor has ever faced, but add to that the fact that Mendes is a great wrestler and McGregor could be in for a long night! Bet 4 units on Mendes at whatever line you can get today. 1.87 (-115) will be what goes on our track record.
Mendes over McGregor. 4 units at 1.87 (-115) at BetOnline