UFC on Fox 16 which features the much anticipated bantamweight title rematch between Renan Barao and TJ Dillashaw goes down this Saturday night from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. We’ll have one free tip for the event which we’ll detail here as well as 3 or 4 tips that will only be available to those who sign up at CapperTek. In terms of our recent results, our most recent week was not as strong as June or the start of July, but all things considered, with a 15% ROI in 2015, we are still at the top of the MMA handicapper pile and for just $9.95, you can get 7 days of our bets!
The main event of UFC on Fox 16 is the highly anticipated rematch between Renan Barao and TJ Dillashaw. This is actually the second time the two were supposed to rematch as the first time Barao missed weight and Dillashaw defended his crown against promotional newcomer Joe Soto (who actually put up a decent fight in losing via TKO in the fifth round). We would be extremely surprised if Barao were to miss weight again so this fight should go ahead as scheduled. In the original match-up in May, 2014, saw TJ Dillashaw with a pretty clear lead on the score cards heading to the fifth round where he eventually finished Barao with a head kick and punches. Generally, we aren’t ones to believe rematches will be much different than the original fights, but the original match-up was so surprising given Barao’s previous division dominance that it is incredibly hard to bet on Dillashaw as a favourite. It is equally hard to bet Barao as the dog though given how mortal he looked against Dillashaw in their first bout. In our opinion, the best course of action is to pass on this fight and look for value further down the card unless the line moves dramatically in one direction or the other.
One of the fights we do like the line on is the lightweight contest which will be the third of the main card between Edson Barboza and Paul Felder. Barboza is currently the favourite at slightly better than 1.80 (-125) while Felder pays at best 2.10 (+110). Felder is 31 years old and holds an undefeated professional record of 10-0 with UFC wins over Jason Saggo and Danny Castillo. Barboza is actually the younger of the two at 29 years old, even though he is far more experienced with a 15-3 record overall and a 9-3 record in the UFC. We expect this fight will be primarily fought on the feet where we expect the flashy striking of Edson Barboza to give him the advantage. The biggest question mark with betting Barboza is whether his chin can hold up to Felder’s strikes. Obviously, he has shown in the past that his chin is not particularly great, but we think his striking advantages will be big enough that he can avoid taking big shots that could lead to a TKO loss. In terms of the betting odds, we think Felder is being overvalued here given that he is coming off a KO win over Danny Castillo, while Barboza is being underrated given the chin issues he has had in the past as well as the fact that he is coming off a loss to Michael Johnson. Keep in mind though, that we have never seen Felder fight a striker the caliber of Barboza so in our opinion betting him at a line anywhere near even money is absurd. The bet is 3 units on Edson Barboza at 1.84 (-119) at Pinnacle.
That’s it for our free betting tip on UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs Barao. Hopefully Saturday brings you and us an exciting night of fights and a decent profit! Remember to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates and to purchase our bets from CapperTek.
Edson Barboza over Paul Felder. 3 units at 1.84 (-119) at Pinnacle.