UFC 190 goes down this Saturday night as women’s bantamweight champ Ronda Rousey enters hostile territory, fighting Bethe Correira in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. We’re not on board with betting Rousey or the under as the lines on both have crazy low odds. In this post, we’ll go over a couple lines we do like that we’ve parlayed together for our first bet on the night. This bet is only the first of what will likely be a total of 6 bets for the night. The other 6 bets will only be available if you sign up at CapperTek where you can also find our third party track record which began tracking in 2015. For a more in depth look at all our bets, take a look at our track record where we’ve documented all our bets since 2013. We have won on 5 of 7 months so far in 2015 so we’ll be looking to kick off another winning month this Saturday, August 1st at UFC 190. Remember, if you haven’t already signed up at Draft Kings, you can still get 30 days of our betting tips for free!
The second bout of the main card will be a heavyweight fight between Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Soa Palelei. While we won’t rule out betting either of these guys at this point, what we do like is the under 1.5 rounds line which currently sits at 1.57 (-175) at Bookmaker. Obviously, heavyweight fights tend to finish faster than other divisions. When you take two big, muscular guys and tell them to punch each other in the face, it’s a given that it’s not going to last long. The one time it does tend to take longer to finish is when one of the fighters has superior wrestling and can control the other in top position. This is not what we expect to see here though as both guys have proven they can quickly finish fights either on the feet with strikes or on the ground with ground and pound. Silva is 35 years old and 18-7 overall with 16 of 18 wins inside the distance and 6 of 7 losses by TKO. He is 0-2 with 2 losses by KO since stopping TRT. Soa Palelei is 38 years old and 22-4 overall. All 22 of Palelei’s wins have come inside the distance while 3 of his 4 losses have come inside the distance. With age, both guys chins will become worse and worse so we expect this ends within 1.5 rounds at least 80% of the time. The odds of 1.57 (-175) imply a probability of 64% by the Bookmakers/betting public. Based on this we think there is big value in the under which we made the first leg of our 2 team parlay.
The second leg of our parlay will be Iuri Alcantara to defeat Leandro Issa. Alcantara is 34 years old and 31-6 (1) overall. Saturday will be his 11th UFC appearance. He is currently 6-3 (1) inside the Octagon. His opponent, Leandro Issa is 31 years old and 13-4 overall. He will be fighting for the UFC for just the 4th time in his career, going 2-1 for the promotion so far. He has a slightly longer layoff as he last fought in December, 2014 while Alcantara’s last fight was in February. A concern about Alcantara is that he is now 34 years old and in the UFC’s lower weight classes, speed rules. We’ve seen in the past many fighters decline dramatically as they approach 35 so that is potentially an issue for Alcantara. We don’t expect him to have declined too much for this fight and we think there’s big value in betting him as the 1.40 (-250) favourite. It will be a stiff test for Issa who will be making a big step up in competition. The two’s only common opponent is Russell Doane who defeated Issa, but lost to Alcantara. We placed a 2 unit bet on Silva/Palelei U 1.5 and Alcantara over Issa at 2.20 (+120) at Bookmaker.
That’s it for our UFC 190: Rousey vs Correira free betting tip. Good luck with whatever bets you decide to place and should you decide to tail our historically very profitable betting tips, you can get them from CapperTek. Remember to also follow us on Twitter and Facebook for all our latest updates!
Silva/Palelei U 1.5 and Alcantara over Issa Parlay. 2 units at 2.20 (+120) at Bookmaker